tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post1897262046367254556..comments2024-03-29T17:12:19.648+13:00Comments on Bowalley Road: Driving Us Up The Poll.Chris Trotterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09081613281183460899noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-62612808207477307672019-12-12T20:40:39.839+13:002019-12-12T20:40:39.839+13:00Bloody hell GS, that really is amusing. Bloody hell GS, that really is amusing. Nick Jnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-51022689039786707552019-12-10T06:57:50.337+13:002019-12-10T06:57:50.337+13:00Nick. Yes there was a certain amount of hubris, bu...Nick. Yes there was a certain amount of hubris, but she only describes some of his supporters as deplorables – although obviously Fox News made a meal of this. Some certainly are. <br />Fun fact the French knew that tanks could, because they done an exercise on it a year before the war. In this exercise the French army collapsed and the Germans were across the river Meuse in a few days. When the Germans actually did it – they took three hours less than the wargame estimation.Guerilla Surgeonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03427876447124021423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-29470714610242041032019-12-08T13:20:12.575+13:002019-12-08T13:20:12.575+13:00What pisses me off is TV One presenting the result...What pisses me off is TV One presenting the results of polls as "news".<br /><br />Worse, it is the lead item on the 6 pm news, and they drag it out over 10 to 15 minutes.<br /><br />Polls, especially ones taken a year out from the election, are not news.Shane McDowallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09354384369518580573noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-34092895881982759592019-12-08T12:23:37.718+13:002019-12-08T12:23:37.718+13:00Indeed GS, my take is that Clinton's hubris th...Indeed GS, my take is that Clinton's hubris that it was her turn, that she couldn't lose against an idiot and that his supporters were deplorable blinded her to the threat. History is great. Did you know tanks can't get through the Ardennes and that Japanese soldiers can't see in the dark? Nick Jnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-81198911052200825022019-12-08T10:04:05.428+13:002019-12-08T10:04:05.428+13:00For example a lesser known part of Trumps triumph ...For example a lesser known part of Trumps triumph was the strategy to win the key votes in the Electoral College. Then fining the messages to a very narrow section of swing voters at crucial locations. This was done using smart algorithms on data from social media to collect data, send out messages specifically targeted and refining results."<br /><br />It's the weakness of the electoral college system, that presidents and parties simply concentrate on those marginal states that will get them over the hump with the electoral college. It was Clinton's mistake that she didn't campaign in these key states at all AFAIK. There are those who claim that if she had done, she would have won the election.Guerilla Surgeonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03427876447124021423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-7466415727945999902019-12-07T10:44:02.591+13:002019-12-07T10:44:02.591+13:00The old fashioned polling technique is passe not i...The old fashioned polling technique is passe not in its accuracy but in its usefulness to those wanting to win an election.<br /><br />For example a lesser known part of Trumps triumph was the strategy to win the key votes in the Electoral College. Then fining the messages to a very narrow section of swing voters at crucial locations. This was done using smart algorithms on data from social media to collect data, send out messages specifically targeted and refining results. Check out the role of Cambridge Analytical and their use of Google and Facebook data. Trumps triumph was a victory using new methods that now will become mandatory for all seeking election. Nick Jnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-53159936260228308532019-12-07T01:51:25.912+13:002019-12-07T01:51:25.912+13:00(1) First Nationwide Polling here was conducted by...(1) First Nationwide Polling here was conducted by a group called Gallup NZ (albeit with no ties to the famous US Gallup company) ... it carried out a single Poll during each of the Election Campaigns of 1960 / 63 / 66 ... & I believe it did so entirely on spec. I think I'm right in saying they successfully sold the 60 & 63 Polls to the Herald ... but had no takers in 66. (The NZ Media were still fairly suspicious of sampling accuracy given sharp memories of the 1948 US Presidential Campaign when nearly all Pollsters predicted a Dewey victory).<br /><br />As it happens, Gallup NZ's polls turned out to be remarkably accurate (absolutely spot on with 2 of the 3 parties - Nat, Lab, SC - in their inaugural one in 1960 for instance).<br /><br />National Research Bureau began regular political polling in the run-up to the 1969 GE (largely for the Herald) ... they were the only Pollster in town until Heylen joined them (commissioned mainly by TVNZ) in September 1974 (just after Kirk's death).<br /><br /><br />(2) Contrasting Sampling Methodologies of Major Pollsters:<br /><br />Colmar Brunton: 50% Landline / 50% Mobile<br /><br />Reid Research: 75% Landline / 25% Online Panel<br /><br />UMR: 100% Landline (certainly the case a few years ago ... not entirely sure of current methodolgy but suspect it's still the same)<br /><br />Stuff / YouGov: 100% Online Panel<br /><br /><br /><br />(3) @ kiwidave<br /><br />Actually Colmar Brunton had Labour far too high in the final weeks of the 2017 campaign ... 43 / 43/ 44 ... (contrasting with most other established Pollsters) ... & were forced (through a certain amount of ridicule in the Media) to beat a hasty retreat & do a complete flip-flop with their final Poll (if their last 2 pre-Election polls were taken literally it would've meant an extraordinarily unlikely 6 to 7 point swing from Labour to National in the final week).<br /><br />The other problem is that Colmar Brunton was no more accurate with its final Poll than other Pollsters (indeed, arguably mildly less so):<br /><br /><br />2017<br /><br />Labour:<br /><br />Election Result: 36.9<br />UMR: 37<br />Colmar Brunton: 37<br />Reid Research: 37.3<br /><br /><br />National:<br /><br />Election Result: 44.4<br />UMR: 43<br />Reid Research: 45.8<br />Colmar Brunton: 46<br /><br /><br />NZF:<br /><br />Election Result: 7.2<br />Reid Research: 7.1<br />UMR: 8<br />Colmar Brunton: 4.9<br /><br /><br />Green:<br /><br />Election Result: 6.3<br />UMR: 7<br />Reid Research: 7.1<br />Colmar Brunton: 8<br /><br /><br />In other words you simply can't cite greater pre-Election accuracy to argue that CB's results are more robust than those of other Pollsters currently producing decidedly less Nat-friendly results.<br /><br /><br />And bear in mind that every Pollster puts in much greater effort & resources to get their final pre-Election Polls right, knowing that their professional reputation rests on its accuracy. You can't necessarily judge the precision of current Polls by how the particular Company did in its final Poll before the last Election.<br /><br /><br />swordfishnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-75862536884813979882019-12-06T12:39:44.201+13:002019-12-06T12:39:44.201+13:00It strikes me Chris that in describing the sort of...It strikes me Chris that in describing the sort of people who answer political pollsters on theirlandlines you are also describing the sort of people - chardonnay in hand - who read Bowalley Road. Maybe it is more balanced than you think - the gap now is not left right but young (unhoused) / old (landlined).Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03896679769770442235noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-73067870563096848862019-12-06T11:18:14.369+13:002019-12-06T11:18:14.369+13:00My wife wants to keep the landline in case of eart...My wife wants to keep the landline in case of earthquakes or something. But to be honest, nobody except one equally ancient friend of mine rings us up on it anymore. Except of course for the occasional Indian guy apparently called "Colin" who says there's something wrong with my computer. On the other hand, only half a dozen people know my cell phone number, and it's remarkably free of people called Colin.<br />That aside, how accurate were the polls at the last election? Some of them in the States were pretty damned accurate, just seem to forget about the electoral college on occasion. So somebody somewhere is doing something right.Guerilla Surgeonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03427876447124021423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-21367957983083026882019-12-06T10:19:58.574+13:002019-12-06T10:19:58.574+13:00The Colmar Brunton poll has a very good record.
H...The Colmar Brunton poll has a very good record.<br /><br />Here’s the last four pre-election CB poll and the actual election results for Labour:<br /><br />2017: 37% poll vs 36.9% election<br />2014: 25.2% poll vs 25.1% election<br />2011: 28.0% poll vs 27.5% election<br />2008: 35.0% poll vs 34.0% election<br /><br />Of course these are very close the election date but do suggest that there's not a lot wrong with their methods - or that the respondance are not "typical" Kiwis.David Georgehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04883628159193125307noreply@blogger.com