tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post6201574582387349525..comments2024-03-29T03:41:12.499+13:00Comments on Bowalley Road: Will Jacinda Stand? Or, Has She Already Fallen?Chris Trotterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09081613281183460899noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-15297814722286161352021-10-11T11:36:40.410+13:002021-10-11T11:36:40.410+13:00Lockdowns don't work?
"The main basis fo...Lockdowns don't work?<br /><br />"The main basis for this claim is that cases on self-reporting apps such as Zoe seem to fall before lockdowns are implemented, but the people who diligently report their symptoms daily for these apps may not be representative of the wider population. According to more representative surveys, lockdowns have always been the point at which rising cases have begun to fall. The ONS infection survey shows that the infection rate in the UK on 18 December 2020 was one in 85, and this rose to one in 50 by 2 January 2021. It was only after this point, when a nationwide lockdown was imposed, that cases began to fall. <br /><br />The same is true for the November and March lockdowns, with one study concluding that, if lockdown been introduced a week earlier in March, it “could have reduced the first wave death toll from 36,700 to 15,700… while delaying lockdown by a week would have increased the deaths to 102,600”. "<br /><br />And of course there is not just one single form of lockdown<br /><br /><br />"How well masking helps with COVID-19 spread is still being researched; however, we do have good data from other viruses that masking can reduce spread and thus reduce new infections."<br />https://www.hopkinsallchildrens.org/ACH-News/General-News/Myths-about-Masks-and-Other-Coronavirus-Facial-Cov<br /><br />Guerilla Surgeonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03427876447124021423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-18599051113004862462021-10-11T10:39:42.097+13:002021-10-11T10:39:42.097+13:00I'm not sure she would resign, only for either...I'm not sure she would resign, only for either her heir apparent Grant Robertson (who is almost equally highly associated with the government and its policies), or indeed even someone relatively unknown, to pick up the leadership and the role of Prime Minister. That doesn't make a lot of strategic sense within the Labour party, nor would it be an effective way for a government to attempt to atone for any perceived failings.<br /><br />The preferred option would be to 'go to the country' early, instead. That way the public would have the opportunity to pass judgment on her performance, and the calculation would be, of course, that the public would be forgiving enough, snatching away only a handful of backbenchers, possibly pushing the Greens closer to the centre of power.<br /><br />On this latter point, the temptation of that as an opportunity to deal a twin blow to National (with Act hoovering up support on the right, and strategic National-leaning voters who want more of a right-leaning government once again bolstering Labour to keep the Greens out of government) and make National's current abysmal polling concrete might also be quite strong.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16984069601004802736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-71377183345075594112021-10-09T20:36:13.531+13:002021-10-09T20:36:13.531+13:00Mr Morris why don't you just move the goal pos...<br />Mr Morris why don't you just move the goal posts to include the 1m rule, the 2m rule or even the keep your distance queuing at the supermarket rule. Now you are talking about lockdowns, and not face masks. I suspect lockdowns do not work as much as the rules for driving on the left do not work in countries that drive on the right.Katnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-20186948656309718002021-10-09T17:42:56.250+13:002021-10-09T17:42:56.250+13:00Here is Hawaii's data where they had mandatory...Here is Hawaii's data where they had mandatory masks and lockdowns.<br />https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-OmkmtWUAMAhTq.jpg<br />Or here are California districts:<br />https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EjmJLGWVgAAgnBR.jpg<br />Here is Peru where they did both masks and lockdowns<br />https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EjmJkPcVoAAoZa-.jpg<br />Or even Israel where they have had masks, lockdowns and very high percentage of vaccinations.<br />https://www.floppingaces.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Screenshot_20201006-100856_Opera-1024x735.jpg<br />So Kat, I can back up my statement that lockdowns and/or masks don't work with actual evidence.Chris Morrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10557217407223228656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-8491976571819003982021-10-09T17:24:20.193+13:002021-10-09T17:24:20.193+13:00Kat You don't seem to want to acknowledge tha...Kat You don't seem to want to acknowledge that the evidence shows lockdowns do not work, just like the evidence shows facemasks don't work. Here is just one on the metastudies that details it. https://www.aier.org/article/lockdowns-do-not-control-the-coronavirus-the-evidence/<br />When you do a number of things together and in some places the combination works and others they don't, then they don't work. When you have equivocal studies - they don't work. Just one failure invalidates the hypothesis unless you can prove the differences - that's fundamental science 101, at least it was in my day.<br /><br />Chris Morrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10557217407223228656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-68003434024886327722021-10-09T14:24:59.492+13:002021-10-09T14:24:59.492+13:00Well Mr Morris did you or did you not write: "...<br />Well Mr Morris did you or did you not write: "They don't work, just like masks don't work.........."<br /><br />That is a fairy unequivocal statement, is it not.<br /><br />And now you provide written material that states they do work as an intervention in combination along with other measures in controlling Covid. <br /><br />I do like reading, but you may have a point about one aspect though, I could be completely unlike you.Katnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-81529865535886986672021-10-09T10:07:18.958+13:002021-10-09T10:07:18.958+13:00Still in Middle more 70 days later according to an...Still in Middle more 70 days later according to an article I read last night on one of the mainstream platformsMikeManhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11409038658011464286noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-64331943849512858292021-10-08T19:07:07.586+13:002021-10-08T19:07:07.586+13:00This is what the people are saying. The song of t...This is what the people are saying. The song of the resistance to bad rule: https://youtu.be/VxKY6WGaL54. Enjoy!Trev1https://www.blogger.com/profile/00271717267778957672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-58751777296314615532021-10-08T17:49:46.033+13:002021-10-08T17:49:46.033+13:00Unlike you Kat, I actually read things like ECDC p...Unlike you Kat, I actually read things like ECDC papers, especially metastudies, and can understand them. I also know correlation is not causation. Here is one.<br />https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/covid-19-face-masks-community-first-update.pdf<br />Note the conclusions "Although there is only low to moderate certainty of evidence for a small to moderate effect of the use of medical face masks in the community for the prevention of COVID-19, the balance of results towards a protective effect across the wide variety of studies reviewed, the very low risk of serious adverse effects and applying the <br />precautionary principle leads us to conclude that face masks should be considered an appropriate non pharmaceutical intervention in combination with other measures in the effort to control the COVID-19 pandemic. <br />Not exactly a vote of confidence. And the comparisons were often done with properly fitted one use N95 masks - almost no-one outside of hospital does that.<br /> <br />For every place with lockdowns or compulsory mask wearing, there is a very similar control without them that has had similar Covid case results. North and South Dakota are case in point. And how is the lockdown going in Victoria? Chris Morrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10557217407223228656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-90464097959306890032021-10-08T17:25:08.391+13:002021-10-08T17:25:08.391+13:00>>>Anonymous at 18:27 shows exactly the a...>>>Anonymous at 18:27 shows exactly the attitude needed to be a fully paid up member of the smug hermit kingdom. NZ cannot isolate itself from the rest of the world. We need them more than they need us.<<<<br /><br />Those of us who don't partake in expensive overseas holidays, or need imported serf labour to pick our apple crops, are actually just fine without the outside world. The border isn't closed to goods after all, only people, and the neoliberal hysteria about the evils of isolationism is truly a sight to behold.DShttps://phuulishfellow.wordpress.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-6301904413978839322021-10-08T12:30:10.101+13:002021-10-08T12:30:10.101+13:00"nor is it highly effective at preventing inf..."nor is it highly effective at preventing infection."<br /><br />No vaccine is completely effective. Many flu vaccines are only between 40% and 60% effective at preventing infection and yet they do a very good job of fighting the flu.<br /><br />I guess so that we should be grateful that you're not going on about microchips or infertility.Guerilla Surgeonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03427876447124021423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-20043310153094268712021-10-08T11:29:46.484+13:002021-10-08T11:29:46.484+13:00But does not Ms Carrot go for the same result...But does not Ms Carrot go for the same result as Mr Stick in 1951 only in a more gentle and persuasive way ?Jens Mederhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17304734497662325275noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-8330385035967139602021-10-08T09:54:47.104+13:002021-10-08T09:54:47.104+13:00@ Chris Morris
"They don't work, just li...@ Chris Morris<br /><br />"They don't work, just like masks don't work.........."<br /><br />Obviously you don't want to be taken seriously.<br /><br />Right.Katnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-61302456515684719282021-10-08T07:37:22.514+13:002021-10-08T07:37:22.514+13:00COVID is clearly a long game. We had an early vic...COVID is clearly a long game. We had an early victory but squandered the opportunity to remake our defences. Instead of building our capacity to win the next round we spent the time devising a race-based health model and squabbling with the nurses over their pay and conditions. Now we are facing the prospect of many deaths, especially in poorer communities, as Delta successfully penetrates our ill prepared defences and is poised to explode. This failure demands Ardern's resignation.Odysseushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04745489060434244478noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-2407253336663574912021-10-08T07:03:45.596+13:002021-10-08T07:03:45.596+13:00Anonymous at 18:27 shows exactly the attitude need...Anonymous at 18:27 shows exactly the attitude needed to be a fully paid up member of the smug hermit kingdom. NZ cannot isolate itself from the rest of the world. We need them more than they need us. They don't know how it came in (Case 1) but it is known that the facilities for controlling border entry were very poorly managed at a policy level. That is a Government's fault.<br />There was 18 months to prepare and there was no plan, no contingencies, just kneejerk lockdown. They don't work, just like masks don't work. But we still do both. Isn't the definition of insanity doing the same thing again and hoping for a different result?Chris Morrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10557217407223228656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-71679233804540723872021-10-07T18:27:06.819+13:002021-10-07T18:27:06.819+13:00"those determined to take advantage of the Bu... "those determined to take advantage of the Bubble" are responsible for the arrival of the delta strain in Aotearoa and their names will not appear in the history books.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-12011888641965705952021-10-07T16:04:25.232+13:002021-10-07T16:04:25.232+13:00The great advantage of a 'free speech' str...The great advantage of a 'free speech' structured society is that people can make comments and opine opinions and if one disagrees then normally people responed with rational coherent arguements pointing out the faults and errors. Rarely the responses are a bit silly and are best ignored.......Barrynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-284200562499451572021-10-07T15:59:51.376+13:002021-10-07T15:59:51.376+13:00Covid has the ability to make or break governments...Covid has the ability to make or break governments. The Right wont win through any deed of their own, nor fresh thinking. Nothing required, sit tight, dont offer ideas because they might be proven wrong. <br /><br />The Left by comparison are like Jellicoe at Jutland, they can lose the war in a day, but they dont have to win, just remain dominant. They are however with this pandemic doing a great impression of the second day of the Somme. "Righto lads, once more over the top, more spirit, do it harder!"<br /><br />They (the Left) are not learning. The vaccine (as figures from overseas sites such as CDC and WHO indicate) doesn't stop transmission, nor is it highly effective at preventing infection. It does give a greater chance of survival. Lock downs are being abandoned as ineffective. If even I can pick this up from official sites??????? The people follow because they are rightly fearful. Being fearful is good but when the house starts to burn down and the fire brigade has no water (or in UK no fuel) the peoples fear will turn to anger. Watch out Jacinda. Nick Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12609312325425361413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-69632854495365776012021-10-07T13:51:36.805+13:002021-10-07T13:51:36.805+13:00Many in the right have consoled themselves over th...Many in the right have consoled themselves over their astounding failure with the view that this Government is a one-trick-pony. I think this is lazy self-indulgent analysis which will be a barrier to National Party recovery. ACT has shown that having a consistent Covid19 policy (which I disagree with, but it is clear) allows an opposition party to engage issues beyond the outbreak. With Seymour I am always drawn to the final line of Werner Herzog's 1977 master piece 'Stroszek', "can't stop the dancing chicken'. National is chasing its own decreasing tail.<br /><br /> The Barronnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-79758652684537687262021-10-07T13:40:10.688+13:002021-10-07T13:40:10.688+13:00I think the Government were actually more concerne...I think the Government were actually more concerned about unrest in Auckland and taking a popularity hit. The Government is in trouble over 3 Waters. Who is in charge Jacinda or Nanaia. I wonder if Jacinda will resign rather than fight the 3 Waters battle which is coming if the Government doesn't back off.Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05289240834173890159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-55640334972981408882021-10-07T13:26:07.604+13:002021-10-07T13:26:07.604+13:00Never underestimate the impact of Helen Clark faci...Never underestimate the impact of Helen Clark facilitating the medivac of the very sick covid case from Fiji!<br />What was the outcome of that person? Recovered and departed or died and would a death show up on the NZ records, or Fiji?sootyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00350236314176041480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-28754180532227924652021-10-07T12:57:10.321+13:002021-10-07T12:57:10.321+13:00Business knows best and whats best for business is...Business knows best and whats best for business is best for the country and the vampire wide boys have written the script and the politicians on the right with their shills in the media are moving their lips and interviewing their keyboards to the voices of the chattering filling the air with the thunder clouds of misinformation and dissent designed to break her heart. <br /><br />Here's one for the free fallin of it all: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lWJXDG2i0AKatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-25894426785538279592021-10-07T10:33:04.599+13:002021-10-07T10:33:04.599+13:00I have to admit being tempted to comment on anothe...I have to admit being tempted to comment on another post of yours when it appeared on Monday morning, given the news many of suspected was coming that afternoon, the end of the Zero-Covid strategy.<br /><br />1. <a href="https://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com/2021/10/queens-pawns-take-bishop.html" rel="nofollow">Queen's Pawns Take Bishop.</a><br /><br />2. Black Pawn to E1. Convert to Queen.<br /><br />3. Black Queen takes White Queen.<br /><br />4. Checkmate.<br />Tom Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17840988228699338463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-12643051485306523732021-10-07T10:31:40.764+13:002021-10-07T10:31:40.764+13:00"Firstly she wont resign – almost no matter w..."Firstly she wont resign – almost no matter what. Shes a died in the wool socialist (as is Hipkins an many others in Labour) and a disaster is simply an excuse to impose more socialist measures."<br />Anyone who says this, is either disingenuous or doesn't know what socialism actually is. Therefore I stopped reading at the end of that sentence because it's obvious you will have absolutely nothing relevant to say.Guerilla Surgeonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03427876447124021423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-80079675898522341702021-10-07T09:54:26.690+13:002021-10-07T09:54:26.690+13:00Jacinda didn't blink, she had her eyes closed....Jacinda didn't blink, she had her eyes closed. Ever since she was lauded as the greatest prime minister of all time she has been oblivious to what has been required .Vaccinations testing, ICU, etc etc etc .<br />Time to stop blaming everyone else Chris and put the onus for all the errors on her. After all she gloried in her fame when the going was good.Simon Cohennoreply@blogger.com