tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post4951303930154129871..comments2024-03-29T00:44:42.046+13:00Comments on Bowalley Road: Kondratiev Comes Full-CycleChris Trotterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09081613281183460899noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-60195128499294867402009-03-06T09:37:00.000+13:002009-03-06T09:37:00.000+13:00Conor'Demand for increasing standards of material ...Conor<BR/>'Demand for increasing standards of material wealth in east and south East Asia might force a realignment of the theory.'<BR/>I very much agree on this point. While we do not know precisely what underlies the K cycle it seems that it follows waves of innovation, consumption, and then satiation, under capitalist motives for production, a macro level process similar to individual humans buying the next 'good thing' then getting tired of it, then a period of latency before the next innovation-production-consumption cycle.<BR/><BR/>But as you point out the emerging two economic worlds situation may well disrupt the neatness of Kondratiev's theory.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-45548138307390113722008-12-02T14:09:00.000+13:002008-12-02T14:09:00.000+13:00Very interesting post. Building on what Steve said...Very interesting post. Building on what Steve said, I've been thinking about whether you can apply Kondratiev’s analysis to today and that whilst it seems obvious that one can see cyclical patterns in the expansion and contraction of capitalism, his model seems to be geared to a linear progression of western capitalism and roughly comparable economic positions within states – meaning that extra growth came from within those states. <BR/><BR/>I’m not so sure it fits as well with the new world and rapidly expanding ‘eastern’ or developing states. Seems like the turbo-capitalism going on there might offset the predicted long period of global recession/depression (and yes I know they’re experiencing the downturn too – but they’re still growing pretty quickly). Extra global growth is coming from within developing economies that are buying the products and services of developed economies.<BR/><BR/>Demand for increasing standards of material wealth in east and south East Asia might force a realignment of the theory.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-51946706114645090162008-12-01T17:26:00.000+13:002008-12-01T17:26:00.000+13:00I first read about Kondratiev in a science fiction...I first read about Kondratiev in a science fiction book. It was in a collection of articels and short stories by John Barnes in it he describes how he uses Kondratiev's cycles to make predictions about the future to set dates and such for his fiction. I think a discussion of Marx's idea of <A HREF="http://www.marxists.org/glossary/terms/f/i.htm" REL="nofollow">fictitious captial</A> is also relevant today.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-50551093125741601772008-12-01T15:31:00.000+13:002008-12-01T15:31:00.000+13:00Chris’s blog entry, about the cyclic nature of cap...Chris’s blog entry, about the cyclic nature of capitalism and its relationship to technological change, has given me much food for thought. Kondratiev’s theory, is very depressing, not just because it predicts that the world is entering a very difficult period, especially for the less wealthy and powerful, but because it suggests the inevitability of the perpetuation of a continually morphing, and always exploitative, economically divisive, and socially destructive capitalist system.<BR/><BR/>Kondratiev’s theory also raises questions about the nature of any current technological development that will be harnessed to fuel the next re-birth of capitalism. It seems to me that the most significant developing technological form is biotechnology, which covers a range of possible applications and areas of research. As well as genetic engineering, cosmetic surgeries, and new forms of medical intervention, there are potential uses for control and manipulation of populations through microchip implants, all of which are in the process of being developed.<BR/><BR/>But these chaotic moments of economic down-turn also widely expose the fracture points, weaknesses, social divisiveness and destructive potential of capitalism. In so doing it highlights possible ways to challenge and change an inherently unfair system. It may be a good moment to promote changes that will benefit the majority of people, as for instance with the proposals by some for a green new deal.Carolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11140142800525092834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-64409274095381592952008-11-30T20:39:00.000+13:002008-11-30T20:39:00.000+13:00Everything Steve said. Most of the rational econom...Everything Steve said. Most of the rational economists in the USA are very worried.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-78200108514048228742008-11-29T01:29:00.000+13:002008-11-29T01:29:00.000+13:00Good Lord. You agree with most reputable economist...Good Lord. You agree with most reputable economists then Chris. The question begged now is, what opportunity does this give the vast majority of the world's population who produce the "wealth" now "at risk" to assert their right to a more equitable share?<BR/>I await your considered reply.....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-84162149041694013272008-11-29T01:08:00.000+13:002008-11-29T01:08:00.000+13:00It is now well over a year since the start of the ...It is now well over a year since the start of the sub-prime crisis. The first 12 months were characterised by the city "experts" continually declaring that the worst was over. Now the mantra has shifted to "the recession may last into 2009 and possibly beyond". <BR/><BR/>Meanwhile Freddie Mac & Fannie Mae, by far and away the biggest mortgage lenders in the US, have been bailed out and nationalised. Lehman Brothers has collapsed. AIG, Citigroup, Northern Rock & Royal Bank of Scotland have been effectively nationalised by their respective governments to prevent catastrophic systemic failure. The three largest remaining car manufacturers in the US will likely be bankrupt by early next year. World share markets have dropped by around 50% and house prices in most of the western world are falling significantly for the first time in about 20 years<BR/><BR/>These developments have been compared by many commentators to what happened in the 1930s but the idea is sold that it is different this time as governments have learnt from the lessons of the Great Depression. I agree - it is different this time but for the following reasons.<BR/><BR/>1) Most peoples pensions, and hence their sense of financial security, are inextricably linked to<BR/>the value of world sharemarkets - they weren't in 1929.<BR/><BR/>2)Many people have borrowed at unprecendented levels to invest in residential housing on the assumption that house prices always rise. The value of a persons house, or investment properties, is inextricably linked to their sense of financial security. Again this was not the case in 1929. <BR/><BR/>3)The ammount of leverage in the financial system is huge when compared to 1929.<BR/><BR/>Chris, your look at Krodatiev's analysis certainly supports my own pessimistic view that we are entering a very deep recessionary period. I believe this is likely to completely reverse the belief in unregulated free market capitalism that has been the hallmark of western economies for the last 20 years.Stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10279864313076181990noreply@blogger.com