tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post5399128799223518879..comments2024-03-29T17:12:19.648+13:00Comments on Bowalley Road: Are The Polls Right?Chris Trotterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09081613281183460899noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-26061987737187684832011-01-09T13:03:45.540+13:002011-01-09T13:03:45.540+13:00I suspect that the lessons of the 1930s have been ...I suspect that the lessons of the 1930s have been largely forgotten and that the New Zealand public, just like the public in most Western countries, can't get its head around the notion that a nation's finances aren't the same thing as a household's.<br /><br />Faced with huge private international debt and a substantial (and inevitable)increase in <br />public debt, the average prudent and intelligent householder finds Treasury belt-tightening to be an obvious and responsible policy option. <br /><br />It will take a massive shift in awareness to convince the mass of voters that government finances are different to those of an individual household and that a degree of 'deficit spending', however counter-intuitive, may be relevant to our circumstances. <br /><br />Unless Labour is able and willing to articulate and explain a different approach to the economy, it will always be easy to paint it as the less realistic and responsible of the major parties. This may not exclude it from office in times of prosperity. However, those are not the times through which we're now living.Victornoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-69537558693902597812011-01-07T11:05:05.991+13:002011-01-07T11:05:05.991+13:00Like Mcflock, I would like to know more about the ...Like Mcflock, I would like to know more about the non-response rates, since it would give us some indication of the numbers who have lost confidence in the political process. Joe Bageant's book "Deer Hunting with Jesus" talks about how the natural constituency of the left has turned to the right because of feeling let down and betrayed by the democrats, and this sort of thing may play a part in Key's popularity here - if you are poor you cannot be let down by a Tory, and may even feel relieved that he is not as bad as he could have been. Others however will have given up on politics altogether, and it would be good to know how many. But John Key would not be on quite such a sweet ride if we did not have Australia next door to absorb a large percentage of our work force. <br /><br />What Labour needs to get its head around is that people have become immune to being offered sympathy and suggestion in lieu of concrete commitment, rather as ducks become immune to the decoy whistle.Olwynnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-41045398138148494792011-01-07T10:00:19.104+13:002011-01-07T10:00:19.104+13:00Problem is McFlock, National's term so far cou...Problem is McFlock, National's term so far couldn't have been reasonably predicted. I know working class people who are already doing it hard and only expecting times to get harder still, who have more faith in Key now, than when they voted for him for the first time two years ago. I would never have predicted that their belief in the National brand would grow with every new piece of bad news.<br /><br />And yet Labour holds completely steady in it's nothingness, waiting for the government to be so appalling and things to get so bad for most NZanders that it will win by default, the prize as the lesser of two evils. <br /><br />And they appear to have asolutely no idea of the laughing stock they have become, and that the media, despite its obvious love affair with Key, is also reflecting a large segment of popular opinion in its attitude to their performance.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-82603554431615565832011-01-07T00:41:20.180+13:002011-01-07T00:41:20.180+13:00They're just men and women on both sides of th...They're just men and women on both sides of the House, and neither can save us. Nat/Lab/whatever, NZ is indeed stuffed, and this goes back to the neo-Liberal policies of the éighties and 'nineties. Personally, I think that Key and Goff are interchangable, one just has a wider smile than the other. Men will never save us, and the disasters make not a lot of difference. National is Socialistic and Labour seem to admire Tories. What a joke. Complacency is actually very dangerous. And we are complacent.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-58235771100995175422011-01-06T18:24:33.331+13:002011-01-06T18:24:33.331+13:00Pretty much on the button, methinks, Mr Trotter.Pretty much on the button, methinks, Mr Trotter.Adolf Fiinkenseinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08045358863278087055noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-86890059592593022342011-01-06T18:16:50.331+13:002011-01-06T18:16:50.331+13:00My concern isn't so much with the polls themse...My concern isn't so much with the polls themselves (although there are issues),but how non-response rates compare with the 75-80% turnout at election time. And the validity of saying "they could govern alone" 10 months out from an election. <br /><br />The other thing is that Key has been blessed by disaster - I mean the trail of cabinet ministers briefing the media if their portfolio even narrowly intersected with the Pike River explosion made me want to puke, but I'm sure it looked good to nu zuld. Even Tolley managed to tour a quake-damaged school and look slightly less incompetent than usual (any price for a photo-op, wandering around classrooms that were too dangerous to teach in).<br /><br />My point is twofold. <br /><br />Firstly, if there aren't so many crises in 2011 as there were in 2010, then the natural incompetence of key's cabinet has a chance to shine through and the smile and wave routine will pall. The election is still too far away to predict - maybe English and the PEDA issue will blow up, or we become the first country in the OECD to go into double-dip recession. <br /><br />Secondly, National needs at least 45% to have a chance of governing. They have no friends. MP could go either way, ACT as zip%. Labour might be able to agree a mature C&S relationship with MP (say 5%) and the Greens (say 5-8%), so that's government on 40%. <br /><br />Basically, I think Labour are soft-tories anyway and don't believe that they've rediscovered their leftist roots, but if National get a second term we're stuffed.<br /><br />By the way, what was Labour polling at the start of 2002?McFlockhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14288270169212126043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-3299071507432055362011-01-06T17:45:18.516+13:002011-01-06T17:45:18.516+13:00Yes, thats right Chris it's a light weight lai...Yes, thats right Chris it's a light weight laissez faire Government, with no creed.<br /><br />Here comes the opposition in the name of the one Farrar can not name, and his name is Winston.<br />Its the economy stupid, and its the Maori ownership arrogance at the foreshore.<br />End the weakling Government.<br />New Zealand has no future other than as a state of Australia.peterquixotehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15873112816453062068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-36908398404048666622011-01-06T16:34:25.227+13:002011-01-06T16:34:25.227+13:00I really enjoyed this post Chris. A good honest re...I really enjoyed this post Chris. A good honest reflection of the situation. I generally enjoy reading your posts because, despite being of a different political leaning than I am, you are generally good at giving some long hard thought to situations and giving honest opinion on issues rather than just defending those you support. Keep it up.whowuddathorthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02097366736986170016noreply@blogger.com