tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post7432127067685990758..comments2024-03-29T17:12:19.648+13:00Comments on Bowalley Road: "The Most" versus "The Majority"Chris Trotterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09081613281183460899noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-88374613648287518602011-11-25T18:19:54.600+13:002011-11-25T18:19:54.600+13:00It is possible, under an FPP system in which all c...It is possible, under an FPP system in which all candidates are either National or Labour, for the party with fewer votes to get more seats. If the popular vote is a tie, but the average National winning margin is less than the average Labour winning margin, then National would win more seats. (This had the potential to give the Boundaries Commission a huge influence over election results.)<br /><br />Also, in the most recent FPP era (1914-93), a single party has only gained 50% of votes cast twice, in 1938 and 1951. Popular majorities were never the norm in the pre-MMP eras.Keithnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-19618333059974559192011-11-18T14:44:09.519+13:002011-11-18T14:44:09.519+13:00Olwyn
I thought that Russell Norman's stateme...Olwyn<br /><br />I thought that Russell Norman's statement in the minor parties' debate was as clear as you could expect in the circumstances.<br /><br />On the whole, the minor parties made it clear where they stood, with Winston Peters the only real fudger.<br /><br />This doesn't mean that none of them will subsequently find complex and barely plausible reasons for eating their words.<br /><br />(If so, they will be seen to be eating them and judged accordingly.) <br /><br />But it does mean that we're entering the election with a reasonably good handle on where each party purports to stand.<br /><br />I see this as further evidence of the maturation and domestication of PR in New Zealand.<br /><br />We seem to have developed an approach that combines proportionality and inclusiveness with the ability to form coherent and stable governments.<br /><br />This is an achievement that long eluded at least some countries with generations of PR experience behind them.Victornoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-39008859292396545002011-11-17T21:16:24.298+13:002011-11-17T21:16:24.298+13:00@ Victor: I don't know if you watched the lead...@ Victor: I don't know if you watched the leaders' debate last night, but toward the end of it Russell Norman said in answer to a question that the Greens would talk with Labour before National, presumably even if National had the greater number of votes. Prior commitments make a difference as well - no one can expect a party to join forces with another when they have committed themselves one way prior to the election.Olwynnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-92027745143114930712011-11-17T12:19:59.432+13:002011-11-17T12:19:59.432+13:00Lew, Markus and Sanctuary
I believe you are wholl...Lew, Markus and Sanctuary<br /><br />I believe you are wholly correct as to constitutional propriety.<br /><br />However, I suspect that Galeandra's view is shared by many and that it's not just the barracking of right-wing pundits that's responsible for this.<br /><br />It's an attitude that seems to flow instinctively from an FPP heritage of "winner takes all", irrespective of the fact that many FPP governments were not elected on the basis of a majority of the popular vote. <br /><br />Meanwhile, PR works well in New Zealand because we have adapted it to our purposes and imported into it a whole series of assumptions drawn from our previous parliamentary experience.<br /><br />One of these is that the government should reflect, at the very least, the mood of a sizable minority of the population. A majority thereof is better still.<br /><br />I don't think that anyone in New Zealand would want the kind of shennanigens which occurred in the past in both Greece and Japan, when right and left joined forces against the centre, thus providing a government for which no-one would have voted.<br /><br />So, yes, the "majority" should trump the "most" but it remains incumbent on political parties to bear in mind the expectations of those who voted for them.Victornoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-34125837559127001972011-11-17T09:20:50.507+13:002011-11-17T09:20:50.507+13:00Lew, that "same idiotic "moral mandate&q...Lew, that "same idiotic "moral mandate" canard ... being peddled by the same folks who're peddling it now" is shared by most people I know and talk politics with; and me, too, though I'm clearly being educated here by my elders and betters. Isn't that 'moral' assumption the genesis of CT's discussion, anyway? Trouble is, "peddled" is such a perjorative word. The historical evidence of 'stolen' elections goes some way to explaining the zealotry of the Standardistas.Galeandrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07139065698464817175noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-85896855236412295102011-11-16T10:38:43.313+13:002011-11-16T10:38:43.313+13:00The only person who doesn't understand this as...The only person who doesn't understand this aspect of MMP is John Rougham. Unfortunately, the foghorn of his stupidity includes being able to write (anonymous) editorials in the NZ Herald.Sanctuaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03107330732524823291noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-83157885705350446982011-11-16T00:11:06.408+13:002011-11-16T00:11:06.408+13:00The very last poll of the 2008 Election Campaign -...The very last poll of the 2008 Election Campaign - the Roy Morgan poll of late October/early November - had the Left 2 points ahead of the Right. This led the lovely Tory blue-rinse matrons currently running the New Zealand Listener to write a panic-ridden editorial (the week before the Election) forcefully pushing the whole "moral mandate" bullshit. Apparently, it would have been a travesty of democracy if a Centre-Left government had retained power. <br /><br />They even tried to anticipate and negate the obvious point that Coalition governments are formed by Second and Third parties (whose support-base comprises more than 50% of voters) all the time in Europe/Scandinavia - apparently we have "a different culture" here.markusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-8773093201495348242011-11-15T22:08:42.435+13:002011-11-15T22:08:42.435+13:00Chris, an important post, well-argued. I wrote som...Chris, an important post, well-argued. I wrote something on the same theme (more technical, less eloquent, more hectoring, &c) prior to the last election when the same idiotic "moral mandate" canard was being peddled by the same folks who're peddling it now: <a href="http://thestandard.org.nz/on-moral-mandates/#comment-98033" rel="nofollow">at The Standard</a>. <br /><br />One other important thing: the Governor-General <i>must</i> accept the <i>first</i> petition from a party leader who can demonstrate support to survive a confidence vote. Not the party with the most seats, or the incumbent party, or the party with the largest proportion of votes -- the first party leader who can get an undertaking of support (or abstention) from 50%+1 of the House gets to govern. <br /><br />LLewhttp://www.kiwipolitico.com/index.php?author=27noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-57868499335993878112011-11-15T12:58:57.896+13:002011-11-15T12:58:57.896+13:00"The Parliamentary Opposition can test this w..."The Parliamentary Opposition can test this with a motion of No-Confidence, which, to be carried, must be supported by more than half of the participating Members of Parliament." I could be wrong, but just as a government can remain in office with a plurality of support in parliament, is it not the case that a government could be defeated by a plurality in a confidence vote, rather than an absolute majority, if some members chose to abstain?Augienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-19923844861604381962011-11-15T12:48:53.201+13:002011-11-15T12:48:53.201+13:00Your MMP example is irrelevant - National and NZF ...Your MMP example is irrelevant - National and NZF in combination held enough seats to govern and recieved (adjusted for 'wasted' votes that failed to receive parliamentary representation) the backing of more than half of New Zealand voters. <br /><br />For what it's worth, I believe the party that receives the single largest number of votes has the first obligation to attempt to form a government.Philnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3753486518085091399.post-91043781508609602572011-11-15T11:45:20.718+13:002011-11-15T11:45:20.718+13:00One of the interesting things is what the Green Pa...One of the interesting things is what the Green Party chooses to do, if it is in a position to decide which major party forms the ministry. It's actually a worry that they may let National continue as a minority government, because of it being so far ahead of Labour's party vote, on the basis of a deal for less road spending, more public transport etc.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com