Wednesday 9 November 2022

Much Worse Than It Looks.

Bad News:  While Labour’s refusal to back away from its most controversial policies is mobilising right-wing voters against them, its all-too-evident failure to address the worsening problems associated with the cost of living, health, education, housing and criminal offending will be having the opposite effect on the voters in its heartland.

THE NEWSHUB/REID RESEARCH POLL is much worse than it looks. Twelve months from now, when the actual voting papers, as opposed to responses to pollsters’ questions, are counted, Labour’s tally is likely to be much lower than 32 percent. Why? Because the level of voter abstention will be higher than it has been for many elections. Higher than the pollsters at Reid Research and other agencies are willing to assume, which means that the pre-election polls will flatter the Left by a significant margin. When the true level of abstention is revealed on Election Night – especially in relation to Māori, Pasifika and Pakeha voters under 30 – the vicious destruction of the Labour Party by older, whiter and righter voters will be explained.

The flight to abstention in 2023 will reflect a turning away from politics that is likely to gather strength as Labour’s contentious legislation on Hate Speech, Three Waters and Co-Governance contributes to a political climate of unprecedented bitterness and strife. While the determination of right-wing New Zealanders to defeat the Labour Government will only be strengthened by Labour’s intransigence, the voters of the centre-left will feel increasingly uneasy about defending Jacinda Ardern’s government. As the political rancour grows, the inclination of “mainstream” voters to “sit this one out” will grow along with it.

Certainly, the overseas experience – especially in the United States – confirms that the nastier politics gets, the stronger the temptation felt by moderate voters to simply walk away from the whole business. The Right’s supporters, by contrast, are energised by their political opponents’ escalations, and typically respond with even more outrageous escalations of their own. The fear inspired by these tactics is even less conducive to normal political engagement. Voters shut their doors against the unpleasantness and determine to have nothing to do with the extremists on both sides.

The dynamic was memorably captured by W.B. Yeats in his poem “The Second Coming”:

The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

While Labour’s refusal to back away from its most controversial policies is mobilising right-wing voters against them, its all-too-evident failure to address the worsening problems associated with the cost of living, health, education, housing and criminal offending will be having the opposite effect on the voters in its heartland.

Among Labour’s “base”, expectations have been high that the changes promised by the party since 2017 will make their lives easier. That these changes – at least on the “transformational” scale suggested by the Prime Minister – have not eventuated, cannot help but contribute to a mood of disillusionment among “Jacinda’s” most loyal supporters. Indeed, according to the results of a survey commissioned by Stuff Media, fully 35 percent of those asked how the Prime Minister made them feel, responded by saying she made them feel “disappointed”. A third replied, “concerned”. More than a quarter said, “angry”.

To make matters even more confusing, Labour has not spent the last five years attempting to re-define itself in the manner of the Fourth Labour Government. In fact, it has done the opposite, taking every opportunity to distance itself from “Rogernomics” and reaffirm its admiration for the heroes of the Labour Movement, Michael Joseph Savage and Norman Kirk.

To older Labour supporters, this is quite simply baffling, and not a little irritating. Many of them lived through the government of Norman Kirk, and are well aware that Jacinda Ardern’s period in office – putting to one side the exogenous shocks of the Christchurch Mosque Massacre and the Covid-19 Pandemic – has been nothing like “Big Norm’s”.

Undeterred, the PM continues to insist that hers is a government in the finest Labour tradition. In her speech to the party conference on Sunday, 6 November 2022, she reiterated her government’s claim to the historical mantle of its predecessors:

On the 9th floor of the Beehive building in Wellington, sitting directly behind my desk, is a picture of Michael Joseph Savage. You could say he’s on my shoulder but also ever so slightly in my ear.

Of course it was Savage and the first Labour Government that lifted New Zealand out of the depths of the Great Depression. Not by cutting taxes and services, but by investing in jobs, and building a social welfare safety net. They built the country’s first state home. And not long after these social reforms - New Zealand’s living standards were among some of the highest in the world. Not for the few, but for the many.

The Finance Minister who supported Savage, Walter Nash, then led Labour’s second government as it continued to build our nation’s social welfare system, while advocating on the world stage for peace over war after World War 2.

It was Norman Kirk and a Labour government who tilted the country towards a modern future with reforms of trade, health, the arts, and education. They worked hard to foster a renewed national identity and partnership with Maōri - all the while challenging global evil such as apartheid and nuclear testing.

It was a fight David Lange continued, making New Zealand nuclear free, while also righting the wrongs of the past by legalising homosexuality, and fully abolishing the death penalty.


Virtually every claim made by the Prime Minister in the passage quoted above is either historically contestable, or just plain, flat-out, wrong. For that very reason, it is a powerful illustration of the deeply flawed thinking that has led the Ardern Government to the brink of electoral ruin.

At its heart is a cynical contempt for the truth, and a smug conviction that the falsehoods scattered through it will not be noticed by anybody whose opinion matters. Labour’s leaders have been able to get away with this sort of rhetorical flim-flam since 2017 because the intervention of the unpredictable – Christchurch, Covid – helpfully distracted the country from its government’s moral vacuity. The longer the electorate has had to take stock of its government’s ethics, however, the less it has found to like.

It is certainly no accident, that on the issues that have so divided the nation – Hate Speech, Three Waters, Co-Governance – Jacinda Ardern and her ministers have been uncharacteristically tongue-tied. The redefinition of democracy which lies at the heart of all three proposals requires attributes this government simply does not possess. The intellectual ability to frame and present an argument. The straightforwardness needed to persuade even one’s own voters to accept it.

Small wonder New Zealanders feel disappointed, concerned, and angered by their Prime Minister. And, no wonder at all that, come Election Day, a very much larger number of them than usual will steadfastly decline to make their way to the nearest polling booth and cast a vote.

Yes, as they watch their older, whiter, and righter neighbours set off to destroy the Sixth Labour Government, they will experience a pang of guilt.

But, it will pass.


This essay was originally posted on The Daily Blog of Tuesday, 8 November 2022.

13 comments:

Gary Peters said...

What is your definition of "Right"? It certainly isn't mine I'll allow.

Welfare for the needy not the lazy, tick.

The right to have an opinion and express it, even if it offends some, tick.

Access to first class education, health and protection from crime, tick.

No needless intervention from the state in my personal life including enforced medical treatment, tick.

I guess all that makes me a white supremacist.

For me, any label applied to the ardern government that doesn't include totalitarian is incorrect.

You also refer to the labour "support base". What is that these days as it is certainly not the average working man or farm labourer? I think most of us "righties" would see it as beneficiaries, excluding pensioners as they love winston, public servants with a low level of competency and academics sheltered from the impacts this government has created.

However, we may disagree on many points but overall I think we are on the same page so does that make you now a "righty" or have I become a "lefty"?

Andrew Nichols said...

...fact, it has done the opposite, taking every opportunity to distance itself from “Rogernomics” and reaffirm its admiration for the heroes of the Labour Movement...

I think you omitted the word "failed"

The Ardern Govt reminds me of that of Hopey Changey Obama who similarly promised transformation and failed to deliver, squandering a clear mandate and thereby delivering the US to Trump's reactionary regime. Whether it's the dumping of CGT or the cast iron promise to end mining on conservation land, or failing to avoud getting sucked back up into the US warmaking plans...all serve to corrode support. I never believed in it anyway given that Ardern was a fan of Tony Bliar when working for him.

Archduke Piccolo said...

As much as I admire Jacinda Ardern's statesmanlike qualities that she brought to the Christchurch mass murders and the COVID pandemic, I never lost sight of the fact that she and her party are self-styled neo-liberals, wedded to the Milton Friedmanite Neo-Classical economic vandalism formerly championed by the likes of Roger Douglas and Ruth Richardson. Although some commentators reckon as altruistic the motives of those two - and of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan and Milton Friedman (on the grounds they thought the 'reforms' they brought would benefit all) - I've never bought that for a second.

I knew the moment it was uttered in my hearing that 'trickle down' was a crock; that privatisation of public assets was nothing more than theft; that the whole scheme simply gave the already rich 'licence to loot'. Others said so 30-40 years back. I call 'trickle down' after an expression of the notion that predated Friedman by several decades. It had to do with feeding the little sparrows corn via the horses' alimentary canals - what I call the 'let 'em eat shit' theory. Apparently enough of the corn would retain after the horses' digestive processes its cornishness to offer a nutritious meal for birds.

This crap I lay fairly and squarely at the door of the Right. There IS no Left.

Today's politicians - and by extension politics - seems devoted to luxury items like identity politics; and to avoiding more urgent matters that go to human living - food, shelter, health, education ... and a functioning society. I daresay gender identity is a matter great importance to many people. But it is of profound indifference to one whose source of food and shelter is a day-to-day problem. And more and more people are going to find that problem becoming daily more acute.

Perhaps it is my indifference to wokism (Political Correctness Mark 2.0) that permits my regarding it as a luxury many of us can no longer afford. What really bothers me most about it is that it seems to be a 'revolution from above', something pushed by our soi-disant 'elites', to occupy politicians' minds whilst more pressing matters are being ignored. I could be wrong, but it all looks pretty sus.

I don't expect the National Party to offer any answers at all, not even by way of pretence.
I rate National's leadership as worthless; their policy self-seeking insofar as National and 'policy' coexist; their socio-economic functionality nugatory. Labour... much the same, until they grow some balls - or, alternatively, ovaries.

Cheers (though)
Ion A. Dowman

Guerilla Surgeon said...

Labour certainly hasn't delivered for ordinary working class New Zealanders. It's a typical "Third Way" government, which embraces neoliberalism and tinkers a little round the edges. Tony Blair would be proud. If people don't vote for them it's all they deserve. Of course National is not going to do any better. They are going to be full on neoliberal with the least tinkering they think they can get away with. Ah well, these things tend to go in cycles anyway.
I get a little tired of mentioning that hundreds of thousands of people simply don't vote, they tend to be lower class, and they tend to think that governments have nothing for them. At the moment they are correct.

"I think most of us "righties" would see it as beneficiaries, excluding pensioners as they love winston, public servants with a low level of competency and academics sheltered from the impacts this government has created."

Never seen quite so many stereotypes crammed into one sentence without the slightest bit of evidence provided. I know a number of very high performing civil servants who support Labour. Not so much in Treasury mind, but given their general incompetence ...
See, I can make stereotypical generalisations albeit I can't seem to get nearly as many into a sentence as you do.

John Hurley said...

Bryce Edwards
New Zealand now essentially has two conservative major parties for the public to choose from. Unfortunately for one of them – the Labour Party – the public increasingly prefers the more authentic conservative option, National. This can be seen in the latest opinion poll showing National continuing to storm ahead of Labour.
https://theplatform.kiwi/opinions/labour-s-version-of-conservatism-is-no-longer-popular

By which definition are either National or Labour conservative?

chrisprudence said...

Neoliberalism and homo economicus constant consumer style choices while the notion of being an informed and educated citizen predated globaloney or globalisation.The middle class has benefitted the most from the international student phenomenom.What we need is free education and a foreign student quota.

Kyle Reese said...

Yes, they are both neoliberal globalists.

chrisprudence said...

Me first user pays selfish utility maximisers don't normally drive down to the garage at night on a ciggie run listening to mai fm in di's twenty year old honda accord.Or have shots of john daniels.Or debate three waters or co governance with maori over cones in the pipe.

Gonebush said...

Chris has called this correctly, I believe. I’m not alone among anguished left-thinking friends and acquaintances in concluding that this is the election to opt out of. Labour is not an option this time on account of its baffling failure to address the neo-liberal root-causes of poverty and inequality. The conservative alternatives are simply more of the same, committed to perpetuating NZ’s long agony with its obviously flawed economic model.

If it were not enough that it has nurtured the destructive legacy of the Fourth Labour Govt, this Labour crew has ambushed NZ again, this time with its co-governance project. It has no electoral mandate for these constitutionally reckless new-treatyism policies. The Greens are the new-treaty Jesuits, so they are not an option in 2023. ACT’s promises to challenge the Trumpian beliefs of new-treatyism offer the long-requested opportunity for public debate but come of course with the socially, environmentally and economically toxic policies of undiluted free-market doctrine.

Voting for any of these parties offers no prospect of making NZ a kinder liberal democracy than the nasty society we have become.

Anonymous said...

Dear Chris,

In the 50's, most of my friends and neighbours lived in state houses. Quite a few of our fathers (mine included) were dedicated alcoholics). I was acutely aware, even at a young age, of the social stigma
and vowed to escape as soon as I could save enough money.

My situation was little different to kids today, stuck in motel rooms in Rotorua with feckless, drug-addled mothers.

I studied hard, got a decent job, bought a house and have tried to be a good citizen.
Now I am nearing retirement, I find myself reviled because I was born Pakeha and supposedly had a 'privileged' start in life.

The only escape from poverty and a sense of social inferiority is education and self-determination. Everything else is just noise.

MimiK said...

In the 50's, most of my friends and neighbours lived in state houses. Quite a few of our fathers (mine included) were dedicated alcoholics). I was acutely aware, even at a young age, of the social stigma
and vowed to escape as soon as I could save enough money.

My situation was little different to kids today, stuck in motel rooms in Rotorua with feckless, drug-addled mothers.

I studied hard, got a decent job, bought a house and have tried to be a good citizen.
Now I am nearing retirement, I find myself reviled because I was born Pakeha and supposedly had a 'privileged' start in life.

The only escape from poverty and a sense of social inferiority is education and self-determination. Everything else is just noise.

greywarbler said...

I am just popping this in here even if it isn't really apposite to the subject. But these words from The Grateful Dead struck me with a wham. In entirety it's long Chris - could supply enough fodder for a day when all your words have been squeezed out.

From 'Throwing Stones' by The Grateful Dead.
Shipping powders back and forth
Singing "Black goes south and white comes north"
In a whole world full of petty wars
Singing I got mine and you got yours
And the current fashion sets the pace
Lose your step, fall out of grace
And the radical, he rant and rage
Singing someone's got to turn the page
And the rich man in his summer home
Singing just leave well enough alone
But his pants are down, his cover's blown...

Commissars and pin-stripe bosses roll the dice
Any way they fall guess who gets to pay the price?
Money green or proletarian gray
Selling guns 'stead of food today
So the kids they dance
And shake their bones
And the politicians throwin' stones
Singing ashes, ashes, all fall down
Ashes, ashes, all fall down

Heartless powers try to tell us What to think
If the spirit's sleeping Then the flesh is ink
History's page will thus be carved in stone
And we are here, and we are on our own
On our own...

sumsuch said...

Voting for the Labour side is better than for numbnut National -- don't be silly. Was Trump better than Hillary? We don't have to touch Labour's sweaty body.

If a talker talked for reality all bets are off.