Tuesday, 4 March 2025

The Politics of Ostracism.

Ruled Out: The AfD, (Alternative für Deutschland) branded “Far Right” by Germany’s political mainstream, has been ostracised politically. The Christian Democrats (many of whose voters support the AfD’s tough anti-immigration stance) have ruled out any possibility of entering into a coalition with the radical-nationalist party.

THAT THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT towards the political right across virtually the entire world is now indisputable. The latest demonstration of right-wing strength came earlier this week (23/2/25) in Germany where the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) alliance and the even more emphatically conservative Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) together accounted for just under half of the popular vote.

The corollary of right-wing strength is, of course, left-wing weakness. In Germany the traditional left-wing standard-bearer, the Social Democratic Party, slumped to its lowest share ever of the post-war popular vote. The Greens also lost ground. Only the relatively minor Left Party registered solid gains.

On its face, the German result would indicate the swift formation of a strong right-wing coalition government. The German electorate has, after all, delivered the right-wing parties a commanding majority in the German parliament. That such a coalition will not, as matters presently stand, eventuate, requires some explanation.

Predictably, that explanation derives from the twelve years that Germany spent under Nazi rule. The crimes committed against the German people and, ultimately, the entire world by Adolf Hitler and his followers presented the victors of the Second World War with a dilemma: How to establish a political system sufficiently robust to allow the Germans to rule themselves without embracing the same radical-nationalist ideas that gave birth to Nazism?

In the Russian Zone of occupied Germany “denazification” was accomplished by constructing another totalitarian state, the German Democratic Republic, in which a single political organisation, the Socialist Unity Party (superintended by the Communist Party of the Soviet Union) controlled everything.

The American, British and French occupiers of the defeated Reich, already engaged in bitter ideological competition with the Soviets, could not be seen to embrace the totalitarian solutions of the Communists. Their brand-spanking-new Federal Republic of Germany could only be a democracy – with all the dangerous freedom that entails.

“Dangerous freedom”?

Of course “dangerous freedom”. Because, if freedom is to be anything other than a sham, it must encompass the possibility of its own rejection. People are not genuinely free unless they are also entrusted with the power to surrender their freedom. Liberty cannot be enforced.

The American, British and French occupiers disagreed. The constitution of their new republic was shaped in such a way that any political party unwilling to conform to its unwavering intolerance of anti-democratic ideas would be shunned by all the pro-democratic parties. If this political ostracism failed, and the voters, against all reason, continued to vote for an anti-democratic party in large numbers, then the all-powerful “Office for the Protection of the Constitution” could ban it altogether.

For good measure, all speech supportive of Hitler’s Nazi regime; the public display of Nazi symbols and memorabilia, and the use of Nazi greetings and slogans, was outlawed.

Following the collapse of the German Democratic Republic in 1989, and the re-unification of Germany in 1990, the exclusion of the anti-democratic Right was extended to the anti-democratic Left. On the grounds that a number of its founders had been members of the Socialist Unity Party, the centrist Social Democrats and their Green Party allies point-blank refused to enter into a coalition with the Left Party.

The AfD, branded “Far Right” by Germany’s political mainstream, suffered a similar fate. The CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU (many of whose members support the AfD’s tough anti-immigration stance) have ruled out any possibility of entering into a coalition with the radical-nationalists.

For the long-suffering Germans this means enduring yet another “Grand Coalition” of the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats. (In New Zealand terms, National and Labour.) But these two ideological formations are traceable historically to very different socio-economic classes and cultural/religious divisions in German society. Politically-speaking, it is extremely difficult to effect a durable combination of chalk and cheese.

Nor is it a durable solution to the steady expansion of radical-nationalist populism in Germany, or, for that matter, across the globe. Once a political movement achieves sufficient momentum to double its popular support from 10 to 20 percent of the electorate, excluding it from political office becomes completely counterproductive. What meagre support for democratic principles that still exists within its ranks will disappear altogether.

The treatment of the AfD will thus prove the truth of German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche’s famous maxim: “What doesn’t kill me makes me stronger.”


This essay was originally published in The Otago Daily Times and The Greymouth Star of Friday, 28 February 2025.

14 comments:

  1. Occam's razor - All the German political parties in the Reichstag have more in common with each other than they do with Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). Further, their voters would be unforgiving if the AfD was brought into coalition. I cannot see why there is an understanding that 80% of German voters find AfD toxic. The democratic parties are simply responsive to their base.

    You end with Friedrich Nietzsche, perhaps the 19th Century German writer more relevant is Ludwig von Rochau who coined the term Realpolitik.

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  2. Until you realise that CDU voters despise the AFD, and would much rather hook up with the SPD. To the extent that any CDU accommodation with the AFD would pretty much destroy them - they got in enough trouble for mere cooperation over a single parliamentary vote. The SPD meanwhile is happy to do its duty as a junior coalition partner. They're less problematic than the Greens - though the CDU wouldn't automatically write off CDU/Greens the way they write off CDU/AFD.

    You can't naively add up Right and Left and see who comes out ahead. Over 70 percent of Germans would never vote for the AFD under any circumstances (there is good reason for thinking 25 percent is their ceiling). And that goes double considering the AFD's current trajectory towards increasing craziness. So rather than a coalition between the Far Right and Centre Right, a coalition against the Far Right is far more in line with democratic preferences.

    (But aren't you cheerleading Le Pen these days?).

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  3. "What meagre support for democratic principles that still exists within its ranks will disappear altogether.
    The treatment of the AfD will thus prove the truth of German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche’s famous maxim: “What doesn’t kill me makes me stronger.”

    What you mean by the first sentence, Chris, is opaque to me. Could you please say it differently? Do you mean the Germans as whole? The CDU/SPD?

    And how does that relate to your last sentence? That antidemocratic impulse in in Germans as a whole. or particular parties, makes any of them ... stronger?

    Are you saying that, pari passu, National and Labour should combine, and refuse to talk with the 'Far Right' ACT? or the (choose adjectives) NZ First? I don't doubt it has been considered.

    It is said there are no atheists in foxholes while being targeted with artillery. Mr Hipkins and Mr Luxon could possibly have many kind words to say to each other while dirt rattles their helmets. Why not. Any folly is not impossible. The bureaucracy would probably love it.

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  4. The AFD are out and out Nazis. They just don't call themselves Nazis because it's illegal in Germany.

    'Adolf Hitler himself said that the only way the rise of the German Nazi party could have been prevented was if its enemies had recognised it for what it was right at the start and had smashed it in its infancy with utmost force.'

    They should be treated like Nazis.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ulCw7RJ5eE8

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    1. Nazis co-led by a lesbian in a civil union with a Sri Lankan woman. Clearly the word "Nazi" will have to be re-defined.

      BTW, Hitler also said that all the repression aimed at his Nazi Party by the Weimar republic aided his rise to power. Many of the Nazis were repeatedly prosecuted under myriad Weimar laws and convicted and served prison time, including Hitler himself, who thus had time to write Mein Kampf. He was also banned from public speaking for several years.

      Here you can watch Former ACLU President, Nadine Strossen - whose father was a Holocaust survivor - talk about the “Weimar fallacy”, which is that its softness on free speech and such caused the rise of the Nazis. The exact opposite is the truth.

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  5. The closest political structure to a real democracy was imo FPP. It was dropped in favour of the more representative MMP. Large numbers of voters were left out in the cold and like in tomorrows schools we can’t have losers can we. FPP meant the party with the largest number of votes won the election. Pretty simple really, the only corruption with the system being the ability of powerful political parties to stay in power and thats seen as not fair. The coalitions as in Germany and here can see perverse results that can see a political party get nearly half the total vote and those voters end up with nothing. Conversely you can end up with a larger party who have to broker a deal with other political entities they don’t like. Doesn’t look like a democracy to me. If a party has to compromise it’s ideals to form a government what are their voters voting for anyway.
    I don’t know the in's and outs of German politics so won’t comment except to say Hitler was a charismatic figure and the people who followed him were eventually haunted by him and that remains today. Trump is also a charismatic leader who is turning the world upside down in his own way. What will his legacy be and how many Americans are impressed with his international antics. Large numbers of Americans didn’t vote for him but there’ll be many who did vote for him wondering where all this will lead. Democratic or Authoritarian. I believe the disenchantment of the political left world wide, is because of a mix of unpopular covid and climate decisions, economic failure, and imo woke social policies. If NZ is in someway reflective of the wider world, I believe that’s what saw the swing to the right here. Whether the right can hold that advantage with Luxon as leader remains to be seen.

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  6. "The corollary of right-wing strength is, of course, left-wing weakness."

    This just is not so, hoping this back to you will elicit thought and not irritate.

    This was a dead idea even before NZ electors voted in 1993 to toss out FFP and bring in MMP. Why does this thinking and the its false corollary persist?
    1789 in the French National Assembly was a long time ago - some verities are eternal but this left/right only division is not a verity. And is no more alive than the fusion of State Power and Church in Byzantine Emperor, when people were fixated on the One. Your previous articles seem fixated on the equally false Two. No one can make the variety of thought now fit that.

    Sheep are given no choice when in the farmers sorting pens... but.. if political Little Bo Peeps can't figure out how to find their sheep, your corollary will not help them. Voters have proven, repeatedly, that they don't believe it either.

    The German MMP. which we have followed, is an unbalanced pot of porridge with a lump of self saucing pudding CDU/SDP stodge baked into one side. Very undemocratic. V P Vance is right about that. No good will come of that.

    NZ, for all the performative nonsense of TPM and Greens and the trembling Hipkins Girondins, has (so far) demonstrated more wisdom. Or been lucky. Yay for us.

    PM Luxon has been getting a lot of stick lately, I wish him wisdom and luck. No harm in that. A bas les Montagnards, from whichever direction they come from.

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    1. The Little Bo Peeps are different in kind, as well as degree. They have to be. It’s the sheep who decide, not the bonneted maiden shepherdesses ( shepherdperson if you’re Green or an idiot, but I repeat myself) with crook.
      Thugs sullenly gravitate to that knoll ( Hi Mr Jackson), lovers of their own so personal opinions curiously in lockstep with drones just like them baby step but also flounce to Mizz Chloe, and Labour … Labour pretend they have any at all

      There’s no left/right in any of this. This point is proved, I think.

      Ostentatious ignorance by many ( of that sort (Green, TPM) , most NZers are not like this), wicked performative pretence by the few ( Hipkins, I and the Idiot Parties leaders) . Busking badly, with menaces.
      Best ignored.

      Opinions expressed here about the German AFD. I know nothing about them. But can say ‘the responsible ones’ over there are v v dumbkopf, if AFD as advertised, or, not.

      Mr Luxon is doing OK. He’s not Satan, or a silly little boy.
      Heavy breathers should stop copying the idiots. Is that too much to expect?

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    2. You seem to hail electorate based politics while slighting TPM, the only party on the NZ Parliament entirely electorate based.

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  7. The AfD will probably be quite happy to stay out of the government, given that the new one looks like it's going to continue with all the policies - especially on immigration and Energiewende - that have caused the AfD's vote to lift as far as it has.

    Quite incredible wooden-headedness from the CDU and company. Apparently they really do think that these policies are going to get better with time; that Islamic Jihadist immigrant crime will drop, that energy prices will stablise or even fall, easing the pain for consumers and perhaps enticing manufacturers back into Germany.

    They're fantasists and they're making the AfD's arguments for them.

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  8. >>The closest political structure to a real democracy was imo FPP. It was dropped in favour of the more representative MMP. Large numbers of voters were left out in the cold and like in tomorrows schools we can’t have losers can we. FPP meant the party with the largest number of votes won the election. Pretty simple really, the only corruption with the system being the ability of powerful political parties to stay in power and thats seen as not fair.<<

    Seeing as the party getting the most votes in 1978 and 1981 lost the election (the same happened in Britain in 1929, 1951, and February 1974), I would say your grasp of FPP leaves something to be desired. You lot are whingeing that a bunch of literal Neo-Nazis with 20 percent of the vote are being shut of government. Under FPP, 20 percent of the vote would net you a tiny fraction of seats. Just ask Social Credit about that. Meanwhile a third of the votes nets you absolute power - as seen in Britain 2024.

    If a majority of voters (and the parties representing a majority of voters) see you as toxic - most certainly the case for the AFD - the clear democratic will is that the toxic party not be in government.

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  9. The trend to the right is being touted by (eg) Helen Clark and Phill Goff as not learning from history, but which lesson?
    They moved first, with actions intended to create ethnicless societies. As these societies have never existed, which lesson is that?

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  10. Ah ha, ha haaa. I see now what you did there, Mr Trotter.
    ‘Ostpolitik’ by Willy Brandt, reworked in your article title.
    Very good.
    Punning, historically informed too.

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  11. Chris: "any political party unwilling to conform to its unwavering intolerance of anti-democratic ideas would be shunned by all the pro-democratic parties"

    The quarantining of the ADF is not because they are anti-democratic - there's no evidence that they are. It's because they are deemed to be "Far Right". Democracy is preserved by being anti democratic, Democracy is what we say it is. We had to destroy the village to save it.

    Meanwhile, under the status quo parties, the economy languishes, energy prices are through the roof, factories are shutting down and the people are being murdered and terrorised by imported Jihadis.

    "If you don't shoulder your political obligation then the tyrants will take the right to do so out of your hands and use it against you"

    JP and Shellenberger, 14 minutes: https://youtu.be/HWuZsNAX8hk

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