“Fortune favours the bold.” Though lacking in the more obvious talents of statecraft, the politician who retains both courage and self-belief has every chance of securing an undeservedly long ride on Fortune’s wheel.
SO, IT’S JACINDA. At last, Labour’s front-bench is beginning
to look like the work of Andrew Little – rather than the cast-offs of David
Cunliffe, David Shearer, Phil Goff, Helen Clark and (God help us!) David Lange!
The last conspicuous veteran of the plague years of the
1980s has bowed to the irresistible logic of Jacinda Ardern’s by-election
victory and announced her retirement. Part of that logic, undoubtedly, was the
reaction of Annette King’s caucus colleagues to her spittle-flecked outburst to
the NZ Herald’s deputy-political editor, Claire Trevett.
Of the Old Guard, only Trevor Mallard remains, blowing
softly on the pallid embers of his ambition. If he really means to become the
next Speaker of the House, then he would be wise to remain as silent and
solitary as the Sphinx for the remainder of the term.
Inevitably, there has been speculation that Ardern’s rising
popularity could ultimately outstrip that of her leader’s – to Little’s acute
embarrassment. What’s missing from this analysis is that up until 23 September,
at least, Little remains Labour’s undisputed monarch. That the King’s younger
sister is beloved by his subjects matters not at all – providing he leads them
to victory in September.
Should he lose the election badly, Little will, almost
certainly, fall on his sword. Few would now dispute that in such circumstances
the leadership of the Labour Party would be Ardern’s to refuse.
On the other hand, should Little emerge from the September
smoke of battle as the leader of a new government, who among his colleagues
would dare to challenge him? It would take a Labour caucus of historic
stupidity to reward the person responsible for liberating them from nine years
of morale-sapping Opposition by organising a leadership-spill. This is not
Australia, and there’s absolutely no sign that Labour’s MPs have been captured
by the plot of Frederick Forsyth’s The Fourth Protocol.
So Ardern can become as popular as Princess Diana and it
will still be no skin off Little’s nose. He’s auditioning for the role of New
Zealand’s prime minister – not for the next series of The Batchelor.
Besides, as every Labour Leader of the Opposition from Norman Kirk to Helen
Clark has discovered: hitherto ground-hugging “Preferred Prime Minister”
rankings have a habit of rocketing skyward the moment the mysterious mantel of
national leadership is draped across their shoulders.
Not that Ardern has ever had to work that hard at being
popular. Her career offers startling proof of Oliver Cromwell’s oft-quoted
observation: “no one rises so high as [s]he who knows not whither [s]he is
going.” Indeed, Ardern bears all the tokens of a political leader for whom
“Dame Fortune” has developed a soft spot.
“Dame Fortune” (the medieval rendering of “Fortuna” the
Roman goddess of luck) was often depicted as a winged (and sometimes
blindfolded) goddess balancing lightly upon a ball. In one hand she carries the
cornucopia of abundance and in the other the rudder by which men’s fates are
steered. In medieval manuscripts, however, she is more often portrayed as the
implacable mistress of “The Wheel of Fortune” – upon which, by turns, the
ambitious are raised up and cast down.
Dame Fortune's Wheel
It’s a powerful metaphor, capturing beautifully the strange
and random contingencies of political life. A politician may appear to have
everything going for him: intelligence, eloquence, diligence, good-looks; and
yet make next to no impression on his fellow citizens. Another, meanwhile, may
be conspicuously lacking in all of these qualities and yet, with the crucial
blessing of Lady Luck, go from strength to strength.
And then there is the common English saying: “Fortune
favours the bold.” Though lacking in the more obvious talents of statecraft,
the politician who retains both courage and self-belief has every chance of
securing an undeservedly long ride on Fortune’s wheel.
Jacinda Ardern could have stayed in Auckland Central and
accepted another bout with National’s Nikki Kaye. Instead she “grabbed Fortune
by the hair”, won the Mt Albert by-election, and in a few short days will be
elected Deputy-Leader of the Labour Party.
Just how high Dame Fortune is willing to carry Jacinda on
her wheel – and for how long – only the blind goddess knows.
This essay was
originally posted on The Daily Blog
of Wednesday, 1 March 2017.
