Sending The Prime Minister A Message: UMR Research asked people to respond to the following question: “The flag referendum has been a distraction and a waste of money. New Zealanders should send John Key a message by voting for the current flag.” Two-thirds of UMR’s respondents agreed with that statement.
STRANGE DAYS we’re living in, when New Zealand’s youngest
voters are the most vociferous defenders of their county’s flag. It has become
a commonplace of post-war political sociology that youth and radicalism go
together like Ché Guevara’s image and T-Shirts.
Even before the youth rebellions of the 1950s and 60s, the
close correlation between tender years and tender ideals had been apparent to
no less a figure than Winston Churchill. “He who is not a socialist at twenty,
hasn’t a heart”, the great man observed, before immediately alienating every
twenty-year-old (and socialist!) by adding: “He who is still a socialist at
forty, hasn’t a head.”
When it comes to the Flag Referendum, however, Churchill’s
formula fails spectacularly. Instead of 18-29 year-olds favouring Kyle
Lockwood’s Union Jack-less fern and stars design by an overwhelming margin, UMR
Research reveals that nearly three-quarters of them (72 percent!) will be
voting to keep the New Zealand flag exactly as it is.
Only the followers of another Winston are more determined to
keep the Union Jack in its proper place. NZ First voters prefer the New Zealand
Ensign to Kyle Lockwood’s silver fern by a whopping margin of 66 percentage
points (83-17 percent). Are we to take from this that only about a fifth of
Winston Peters’ supporters are serious about putting their country’s
independent future ahead of its colonial past?
Or, is something else at work?
UMR Research clearly thinks so. Why else would they have
asked people to respond to the following question: “The flag referendum has
been a distraction and a waste of money. New Zealanders should send John Key a
message by voting for the current flag.” Two-thirds of UMR’s respondents agreed
with that statement. But, once again, it was the 18-29 year-olds who did so
most vociferously. Fully 71 percent of them agreed that Mr Key should be sent a
message.
Is this what the Flag Referendum has turned into? A
referendum on John Key? People voting to humiliate the Prime Minister because
they know they can do so without upsetting the entire political apple-cart? If
so, then politics in New Zealand has reached a very interesting point. The
electorate may be rapidly tiring of the National Party’s leader, but it has not
yet grown weary of the National Party Government.
In other words, Mr Key may have got on a great many of the
public’s nerves, but on its all-important hip-pocket nerve he has not got. The
economy is still growing (albeit slowly) unemployment is falling, and inflation
is as low as most people can remember. Wage rises may be low and infrequent –
but, when they are given, they are real. And if you’re one of those voters
lucky enough to have both feet on the property ladder, then the “wealth effect”
of constantly rising house prices is unlikely to recommend any other party
(except Act) for your serious electoral consideration.
The Flag Referendum thus permits people to lance the boil of
their accumulated frustrations with the Prime Minister easily and
inconsequentially. It’s a political diversion so very clever that one is sorely
tempted to speculate that it’s exactly what Mr Key had planned all along.
And all those angry 18-29 year-olds? Are they going to be
content with simply voting to retain the present flag? Will that really be
sufficient to purge their twenty-something socialist hearts of resentful
millennial rage? One suspects not.
And it is here that the political story takes a rather sad
turning. Were our young voters living in the United States their hearts would
be responding to the uncompromising summons of Senator Bernie Sanders: who, by
remaining a socialist into his mid-seventies, has well-and-truly given the lie
to Winston Churchill! Living in Britain, they would have Jeremy Corbyn (another
superannuated socialist!) to whom they could give their hearts. But here, in
New Zealand, there is a dearth of charismatic socialists on whose electoral
altar they can lay down their youth and enthusiasm.
Guyon Espiner, writing in The Listener, likened Andrew Little to a rather dour Police
inspector. Pitted against the grasshopper carelessness of John Key, Espiner
argued, DCI Little might be just what the electorate is looking for. Or, at
least, what forty year-old voters with a head might be looking for.
Those flagging a heart-felt vote, will just have to keep on
looking.
This essay was
originally published in The Waikato Times, The Taranaki Daily News, The
Timaru Herald, The Otago Daily Times and The Greymouth Star of Friday, 19 February 2016.

