Monday 11 October 2021

Delta’s Week Of Doom.

Classic Shot: Are the Prime Minister’s formidable communication skills equal to the task of getting her government’s anti-Covid campaign back on track?

IF JACINDA ARDERN thought last week was bad, the week ahead promises to be even worse. Sixty community cases of Covid-19, one of the highest daily totals so far recorded in this Delta outbreak, certainly made for a grim beginning.

Making everything worse, is the extraordinary tangle into which the Government has gotten itself. Gone are the days of simple, but inspired, messaging: “Go hard. Go early.” “Stay home. Stay safe.” “Stamp out the virus.” In “To pee or not to pee: A full timeline of the confusing level three bathroom rule”, The Spinoff’s Madeleine Chapman makes excruciating fun of the Government’s messaging disasters.

People hating a government is one thing. What some people hate, other people are almost certain to love. But people laughing derisively at a government, that is something else entirely. Politically, it’s very hard to come back from derisive laughter.

But what other option, apart from derisive laughter, is left for New Zealanders? Except, perhaps, angry tears? And how did it get to this point? From OECD poster-child, to international laughing stock? What was it that caused this Government’s stunning reversal-of-fortune?

The easy answer is, of course, The Delta Variant. Jacinda Ardern’s government was well-armed against the Covid-19 virus of 2020. New Zealand had beaten it back in spectacular fashion, suffering only a tiny fraction of the casualties experienced in other countries. Sadly, the Elimination Strategy, this government’s very own Maginot Line, could not stop the Panzer divisions of Delta. The strategy of the first Covid war, proved inadequate to the second.

Also inadequate, was the administrative rigidity of New Zealand’s state apparatus. This country’s people are famous for their “No. 8 Wire”, can-do improvisation, and for their willingness to give anything a decent try – and to hell with the hierarchies! Indeed, we are told it is precisely this attitude that makes Kiwis so highly-prized by foreign employers. But, if such attitudes were ever acceptable to New Zealand’s public servants, they are pure Kryptonite to the current generation of bureaucratic mandarins.

Highly centralised, intolerant of independent thought, fearful of error (and, therefore, of experimentation) the state bureaucracy very early-on convinced the Prime Minister and her closest confidants that they were going to have to carry much of the performative burden on their own shoulders. The key decision-making circle was, accordingly, drawn very tight around the Prime Minister. The bureaucratic hierarchy most relied upon being neither the Ministry of Health nor MBIE, but the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet.

That this tight circle of decision-making got so much right in the first phase of the Pandemic encouraged an unfortunate surfeit of self-confidence among the Prime Minister’s principal advisers. Spectacular success isn’t always a blessing. “We got this!” can be a dangerous motto.

With the benefit of hindsight, it is very clear that, if the bureaucracy could not be relied upon to act with speed and imagination, then the Labour leadership’s most sensible response was not to try and do it all themselves, but to appeal over the heads of the public servants to the public itself. As we have seen, DHBs, businesses, iwi authorities, non-profits, unions, and community groups can come to the aid of a government with impressive amounts of energy and flexibility.

Nowhere was this more evident than in the tortuous roll-out of the official vaccination effort. Cumbersome, time-consuming, inefficient and ineffective, the official process generated enormous public frustration. If the People themselves had not taken the task in hand, New Zealand’s vaccination rates would be even worse than they are. Only when anxious communities swung into action alongside their GPs and other local health providers did the numbers getting the jab rise to something approaching an acceptable level. Vaccination busses with names like “Shot, Bro” and “Jabba the Hutt” exemplified the tremendous energy and creativity obtainable from the nation’s flax-roots.

Also with hindsight, it is possible to recognise how unwise it was of the Labour Government to allow the impression to grow that the “We” in “We got this!” did not include the business community. In a capitalist society, it is never a good idea to let the Devil find work for idle businesspersons’ hands. Those who own the world, perhaps not surprisingly, tend to think they should also play a significant part in running it.

Seeking to establish some sort of timetable for “re-opening New Zealand to the world” was by no means an unreasonable boon for the business community to ask of the Government. Especially if the business in question was a small one, and its owner was watching it die. No matter how attentive the Prime Minister and her colleagues may have been to some business leaders behind the scenes, the front-of-house optics were not encouraging. To many businesspeople, the spectacle of “Queen Jacinda” and “Saint Ashley” standing behind their “powerful podiums of truth” had a decidedly anti-business aspect. What did politicians and public servants know about running a profitable business?

Experienced and knowledgeable business leaders also understood that Delta was different. The swift elimination of Covid-19, leading to a swift return to business as usual, made lockdowns irksome, but bearable – especially with the government wage subsidy. If lockdowns proved unequal to the challenge of the Delta variant, however, only near-universal vaccination would suffice. If the Government wasn’t prepared to make “opening up” and mass immunisation amount to the same thing, then “the big end of town” would. John Key’s op-ed intervention made good the threat.

These, then, were the components of the “perfect storm” which engulfed the Prime Minister and her government: first and foremost, there was the Delta variant itself; then, an arrogant, secretive, unimaginative and intolerably sluggish state bureaucracy; not forgetting the “We got this!” hubris of the PM’s tight decision-making circle; leading to the government’s tardiness in encouraging a “bottom up” roll-out of the Pfizer vaccine; and finally to its failure to prevent the business community, and its compliant news media, operating as a subversive “fifth column” in the Covid war.

Are the Prime Minister’s formidable communication skills equal to the task of getting her government’s anti-Covid campaign back on track? Is her health bureaucracy nimble enough to encircle the rampaging Panzer divisions of the Delta variant? Is there enough heart still left in her “Team of Five Million” for them to reassure their captain: “Don’t worry, Jacinda, we got this!” Is the business community willing to go head-to-head with the Team of Five Million if they rally to the PM’s side? Is the criminal underworld (making a late appearance in this drama) sufficiently patriotic to stay safe at home? Is the daily total of Covid community cases about to go exponential?

A lot of questions, demanding a lot of answers. And not a lot of time to provide them. Still, as Harold Wilson wryly observed, and Jacinda Ardern is only too aware: “A week is a long time in politics.”


This essay was originally posted on the Interest.co.nz of Monday, 11 October 2021.

12 comments:

Simon Cohen said...

An excellent post Chris.
I hope you read it KAT !!!!

Barry said...

Keeping in mind the spread and mutation history of the normal flu and SARs and MARs then it must have been obvious back in early 2020 that the growing outbreak in China was serious.
The list of this goverments main errors are:
Ignoring virus fast spread in and out of china.
Ignoring New Zealands poor ICU resources.
Not including the opposition in covid decisions - she kept saying 'team of 5 million ' but she really meant ' team of a those who agree with me'
Keeping pharmac out of the vaccine purchase process.
Continuing to ignore ICU shortcomings including refusing to allow ICU specialists to come into the country.
Thinking that blaming racism and throwing money at trying to get young maori to vaccinate. As seen in Northland last week being scared shitless and threats of limits on movements work very well.
And the biggest error was ignoring the effect of Delta in India.

These are just the biggest mistakes. Other errors are a hopeless tracing system, slow action on faster testing systems, awful messaging with regular cross messaging, etc, etc.

CXH said...

"and its compliant news media, operating as a subversive “fifth column” in the Covid war"

The media has idolised St Jacinda the whole time. Praising her and Ashley as if they could do no wrong. The would proudly parrot overseas media that also gave her accolades, basking in the glow she gave off. Never one questioning.

It is only now, as the public has stared to push back, that they are following along. Scared they may be tainted by their previous proximity.

An indictment of the media in general. There is no longer a backbone or a desire to persue truth. It is now just mirror the mood of the people and hope to survive.

Kat said...


"A week is a long time in politics"

The time frame around Jacinda Arderns campaign against covid being on or off track may be hot discussion in the newsrooms and on the blogs with the string still being gathered. The "team of (not quite) five million" is just carrying on with it.

Here's something to carry on with:https://vimeo.com/295047515

AB said...

"Is the business community willing to go head-to-head with the Team of Five Million if they rally to the PM’s side?"

Undoubtedly yes. They hated losing the first Covid war and they hated even more that the country's success in the first war came precisely because they were sidelined and mostly ignored, despite some minor placatory noises round the edges.

From day one there has been a deep and unbridgeable ideological gap between those of us who want to collectivise risk across a "team of five million", and those who want to individualise it, because they reckon they will get out of this OK with their wealth intact or enlarged.

oneblokesview said...

I see American English creeping in there Chris..

Gotton???

Making everything worse, is the extraordinary tangle into which the Government has gotten itself

Surely it should be
into which the Government has got itself in to
:-)

Yes, by ignoring Business Jacinda has removed an effective response to handling Covid.

We all remember the SNAFU with PEP, which was quickly solved by business.
Then ignoring the small business called GP Medical practices, vaccine rollout was pathetic.

The mandarins in the relevant ministries, especially the MOH which refused to join the all Government Covid Committee need to be either replayed or severely chastised for the pickle we find ourselves in. They are playing power games while NZ suffers.

Saliva tests and its debacle are a prime example.

No matter the ideology, business keeps the country going.



Anonymous said...

...Ardern’s government was well-armed against the Covid-19 virus of 2020. New Zealand had beaten it back in spectacular fashion, suffering only a tiny fraction of the casualties experienced in other countries. Sadly, the Elimination Strategy, this government’s very own Maginot Line, could not stop the Panzer divisions of Delta...

What a load of florid bullshit.

From when the Alert Level 4 was imposed, to September 21 when it was lifted, the arrow of infectiions was on a sharp downward direction to a low of 22 on September 21 the last day of Alert level 4. Unfortunately two of the 22 daily cases on the 21st of September could not be linked to any know chain of transmission. In August the Prime Minister had said that the government would not go down a level, "until the country could be confident that there was no undetected community transmission". Under pressure from the business community against the advice of health professionals, despite two cases of undetected transmission. The government abandoned Alert Level 4. 8 days later the arrow resumed its upward climb.


Tme line graph published by TVNZ

The Delta virus was getting absolutely crushed under Alert Level 4. Alert Level 4 was abandoned for economic reasons not because it was failing.

https://amp.tvnz.co.nz/news/story/JTJGY29udGVudCUyRnR2bnolMkZvbmVuZXdzJTJGc3RvcnklMkYyMDIxJTJGMTAlMkYxMCUyRnN0cmljdC1fY2lyY3VpdC1icmVha2VyLWxvY2tkb3duLW1heS1iZS1uZWVkZWQtZm9yLWF1Y2tsYW5kLXNoYQ==

greywarbler said...

'That this tight circle of decision-making got so much right in the first phase of the Pandemic encouraged an unfortunate surfeit of self-confidence among the Prime Minister’s principal advisers. Spectacular success isn’t always a blessing. “We got this!” can be a dangerous motto.'

I think this from the post is the crux. The Delta variant seems very adept at adapting; the bureaucrats have lost their edge in running the three-legged race. Hip, hop along is the word - not hope.

David George said...

Thankfully the second Northland border jumper has been caught but not before completely ruining our plans. Not happy! I suspect their refusal to say where, and who with, they've been indicates an understandable fear of the mob. Disclose where they've couriered drugs to, for example, and they would kill them.

I guess we're going to get an essay on how this is typical of this class Chris?
The one on the Wanaka escaping "toffs" made the claim that they had zero concern for the wider community and that their types are morally bereft generally. Not sure that a 26 year old lawyer and a horse trainer would be on any better that average wage, if that, but good story if it fits your preconceptions I suppose.

Chris Trotter said...

To: David george @ 7:11

No need for an essay, David. One sentence will suffice.

"Capitalism made them both."

David George said...

Thanks Chris.
People do all sorts of antisocial things in all sorts of societies and economic systems, I just don't think it's helpful to assume that people's actions are a mere product of their class or race or whatever. It's just wrong that's all.

sumsuch said...

Derisively? The non-mental cases realise this govt is scouting ahead into new territory. Lowering Akld to level 3 was their first 'political' over science move.

The main issues are major unnecessary deaths and overwhelming the hospitals.

Being closely related to the antis, I think the teacher mandate will raise questions, needed to be campaigned for prior, rather than a law from on high, like Helen against knighthoods.

It's a common theme with 'Leftist' governments to go full ahead for issues cos there's no political opposition at the moment. The strength of the 35 govt was they understood everything in their marrow. From being under it their entire adult lives.

Who doesn't believe elite Labour doesne understand much?