If Not Him, Who? Surrendering to a run of bad news seldom makes the headlines any better. Opposition Leader Simon Bridges may have many faults, but he is, at least, a known quantity. Of his potential replacements: Paula Bennett, Judith Collins, Mark Mitchell and Todd Muller: those not generally detested by the voters are generally unknown to them.
DEPOSING SIMON BRIDGES as Leader of the Opposition would
cause the National Party more problems than it would solve. Yes, Bridges is
difficult to like and prone to serious lapses in political judgement, but he is
also capable of exploiting the Government’s weaknesses with considerable
aplomb. It is this strength that National needs to keep in play as the country
counts down to the General Election. Truly bad things are coming down the pike
and Labour lacks the depth of political talent required to deal with them. In
the same way a tree can hide in a forest, Bridges’ failings may soon become
much harder to spot.
Keeping its collective nerve will admittedly be difficult
for the National caucus. Very soon appalling private poll results will be confirmed
by equally appalling public ones. Bridges’ favourable/unfavourable numbers will
test the patience of his colleagues to the limit. And the dazzling halo of
public acclaim currently crowning the Prime Minister can only make National’s parlous
political situation even harder for its parliamentary team to bear.
But bear it they must. Surrendering to a run of bad news
seldom makes the headlines any better. Bridges may have many faults, but he is,
at least, a known quantity. Of his potential replacements: Paula Bennett,
Judith Collins, Mark Mitchell and Todd Muller: those not generally detested by
the voters are generally unknown to them. Worse still, all bar Muller hail from
the National Party Right, and Muller’s allegedly “wet” credentials are far from
unimpeachable. (In party politics, just about everything is negotiable!) In
short, if the National Caucus does lose its nerve, then the public’s most
likely reaction will be either “Not her!” or “Who’s he?”
What this dilemma reveals is the party’s failure to equip
itself with enough politicians of sufficient stature to meet all contingencies.
How differently the party was positioned in 2002, following National’s worst ever
electoral defeat. Bill English may have led his colleagues to the crushing
repudiation of a 20.9 percent Party Vote, but when the smoke had cleared Don
Brash and John Key were seated comfortably on the Opposition Benches. The
former was particularly well-suited to lead National back into electoral
contention, and the latter had everything it took to carry the party forward to
victory in 2008. Scanning the Opposition’s ranks in 2020, it is simply not
possible to identify either a Don Brash- or a John Key-in waiting.
Giving New Zealand a National Party leader even further to
the right than Bridges would be an invitation to electoral ruin. By the same token,
electing a new leader of no fixed ideological abode would immediately prompt
the question: “Why did they bother?” It would also prove that National’s caucus
lacks the wit to recognise the winning combination it already has.
Bridges has already proved his ability to fasten his sharp
little teeth firmly around Labour’s jugular if its representatives and advisers
are silly enough to give him the opportunity. One has only to recall his
successful exploitation of the Treasury’s Budget Papers foul-up to be reminded
of the harm Bridges can inflict when he gets the chance. On that occasion he
seriously compromised the Minister of Finance’s “wellbeing”. Grant Robertson
has seldom looked so irked!
More seriously, Robertson now has Paul Goldsmith marking him
on the economic wing. National’s finance spokesperson may strike voters as a
fairly cold fish, but given Goldsmith’s role is to forensically deconstruct the
Government’s response to the Covid-19-induced recession with icy detachment and
unrelenting severity, his rather chilly persona may be no bad thing. That Bridges
and Goldsmith have become close friends and allies only makes the wisdom of
keeping both of them at the head of National’s column all the more compelling.
What every member of National’s caucus can do for their
all-too-frequently hapless leader is remind him constantly of the fundamental
importance of political timing. How different things would have been this week
if Bridges had restricted his response to the Prime Minister’s extension of the
Level 4 Lockdown by a further week to one of calm, but guarded, support. If
he’d followed this with a heartfelt shout-out to all the small businesses
struggling to stay afloat in the Covid-19 flood he would also have been
superbly set up for what unfolded the following day at the Epidemic Response
Committee.
Labour thought itself very fortunate to secure the services
of Dr Deborah Russell. Her academic expertise in taxation made her a sitter for
Cabinet. That is to say – it did. Because her performance at the Select
Committee on Tuesday, 21 April was not the sort that enhances political
careers. Russell’s almost total lack of empathy for the thousands of small
business owners facing ruin as a result of the Lockdown will not be forgotten
in a hurry by the individuals and families involved. Insinuating that their
acute financial vulnerability was evidence of business incompetence, was like rubbing
salt in an open wound. Symptomatic of the ever-widening gulf between Labour’s
professional-managerial recruits and the rest of the country, the New Lynn MP’s
condescension recalls Hilary Clinton’s infamous description of Trump’s
followers as “a basket of deplorables”.
Had he not buried himself under an avalanche of public (or,
at least, Facebook) opprobrium by responding so gracelessly to the Prime
Minister’s announcement, Bridges could have pilloried Russell for her
insensitivity and ignorance. National’s core supporters among the nation’s
small and medium-sized enterprises could have been reassured – inspired even – by
their party leader.
“I may not have Jacinda’s star-power,” he could have said, “but
I know – because hundreds of you have told me – what it’s like to lie awake all
night wondering how to save the business you have poured your whole life into
building up. How dare a well-paid academic-turned-Labour-politician criticise
that sort of effort and dedication? What did she earn her doctorate for –
cruelty?”
With problems whole lot worse than Dr Russell’s
insensitivity heading Labour’s way, all Simon Bridges and his Finance
spokesperson need to do, is let the Coalition Government’s predictably
over-cautious and ideologically-arid policies speak for themselves.
Jacinda only has five months to teach her colleagues to
speak the language of empathy and kindness. If she fails, then National’s words
of condemnation and reproach will be more than enough to unseat her.
This essay was originally posted on The Daily Blog
of Thursday, 23 April 2020.
