Wolves In Wolves' Clothing: What Key and Joyce, both inveterate poll-watchers, clearly grasped after National’s last-minute failure in 2005 was that when push came to shove, the New Zealand electorate just wasn’t ready to take yet another wild ride into political and economic upheaval. National had to learn how to "make haste slowly".
NEW ZEALAND’S LOVE AFFAIR with John Key, like most enduring
relationships, is based on trust. Ever since he wrested the leadership of the
National Party from the scary Don Brash, it has been Key’s unwavering mission
to present both himself and the party he leads as ordinary, decent and (most
important of all) non-threatening. Looking back over the past six years, only a
fool would say he hasn’t been extraordinarily successful.
Had Brash won the 2005 election New Zealand would have been
plunged into a period of acute political instability.
Faced with a government determined to relegate the Treaty of
Waitangi to the status of an historical relic, and abolish the Maori seats
altogether, the Maori Party, the Greens and (with much less enthusiasm) the
Labour Party would have found themselves mobilising not only a furious
Maoridom, but also a very significant swathe of Pakeha society as well. The resulting
clash of a very significant minority of the population with “the racist Right”
would have made the 1981 Springbok Tour protests look like a tepid historical
dress rehearsal. After three years of increasingly violent and ultimately fatal
confrontations, it’s likely that Brash, the National Party and their rabid Act
allies would have been consigned to electoral oblivion. The Right’s electoral
rehabilitation would have taken at least a decade.
In a very real sense, then, National (and New Zealand)
dodged a bullet in 2005. And the two National Party politicians who appreciated
just how big a bullet it was that had whistled over their heads were John Key
and Steven Joyce. It’s not that these two politicians underwent some sort of
Road to Damascus conversion from far-Right fanatics to kitten-eyed moderates –
far from it. What they grasped was that any further attempts to impose the
entire right-wing agenda in one fell swoop were bound to produce exactly the
same electoral failure.
Brash had taken his inspiration from Roger Douglas and Ruth
Richardson. All three of these politicians were “policy aggressors” determined
to overturn “the conventional wisdom” in the name of a radically reconfigured
New Zealand economy and society. But what Key and Joyce, both inveterate
poll-watchers, clearly grasped was that National’s last-minute failure in 2005
was only partly due to Brash’s personal stumbles. When push came to shove, the
New Zealand electorate just wasn’t ready to take yet another wild ride into
political and economic upheaval. If National was to capitalise successfully upon
the electorate’s growing disenchantment with “Nanny Helen’s “ “political
correctness” and a Labour Party fast becoming unrecognisable to “Middle New
Zealand”, then the negative legacies of Richardson, Shipley and Brash had to be
expunged.
And nobody does expunge like John Key. In spite of the fact
that in his earliest incarnation as a National Party back-bencher, the MP for
Hellensville boasted a decidedly reactionary political profile, John Key, as
Leader of the Opposition, proved to be extraordinarily adept at presenting
himself as “Mr Moderate”, “Mr Bloke-Next-Door”, “Mr
Guy-I’d-Like-To-Have-Beer-With” or (if you were a woman) “Mr
Guy-I’d-Like-To-Shag”. If Brash’s mentors had been Douglas and Richardson, the
policy aggressors; Key’s were Sir Keith Holyoake, Jim Bolger and Clark herself:
incrementalists all.
But just because, as a politician, you’ve decided to make
haste slowly, doesn’t mean that you don’t get to where you’re going in the end.
A dispassionate review of the Key Government’s legislative achievements since
2008 could only conclude by observing that notwithstanding all the taunts of
National having turned into “Labour-Lite”, this is a very right-wing government
indeed. It’s unrelenting hostility to all forms of environmental protection;
its opening of our land and sea to mineral exploration and extraction; its
blank refusal to take any meaningful action against Climate Change and its
determination to protect the dairy industry from any and all forms of practical
regulation: these are only the beginning of what is now a very long list
National’s reactionary victories.
And just consider what has characterised the opening shots
of National’s third term. Dismissed as mere technical adjustments, the
Government’s changes to the Employment Relations Act place New Zealand at the
far right-wing reaches of the OECD. (As the CTU president, Helen Kelly, quite rightly
points out.) Then there is Bill English’s and Paula Bennett’s extraordinary
decisions in relation to state housing. At a time when people are living in
caravan-parks and cars, the idea of selling up to a third of the nation’s state
houses represents a sudden and utterly unmandated return to the darkest days of
Jenny Shipley. And as if these measures weren’t reactionary enough, it now
seems certain that Key will commit New Zealand military forces to the confused
and almost certainly ineffective US-led war against the Islamic State.
“Moderate”? “Labour-Lite”? Not really. John Key’s government
is every bit as bad as its predecessors. It is, however, a great deal better
than most of them at pretending it isn’t. And to those who find it impossible
to see “that nice Mr Key” as being anything other than the soul of reason and
common sense, I can only offer the words of St Matthew’s Gospel:
“Beware
of false prophets, who come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly they are
ravenous wolves. You will know
them by their fruits.”
This
essay was posted simultaneously on The Daily Blog and Bowalley Road on Tuesday,
4 November 2014.







