Sunday 17 August 2014

Going Up!

THERE WILL BE MASSIVE SIGHS OF RELIEF all around New Zealand tonight as Labour Party supporters receive the latest TV3-Reid Research poll results. Worries that the disastrous Fairfax-Ipsos poll results would be confirmed by other polling agencies have proved groundless. In the poll released tonight by TV3 Labour's numbers have improved by more than 2 percentage points to 29.0 percent, placing the largest of the progressive parties just short of the crucial 30 percent mark.

The Greens, on 13 percent, will also be thrilled. Launching their campaign this afternoon on the AUT campus in Auckland with an announcement of a $1 billion dollar programme to eliminate child poverty, the country's third largest party proclaimed an election night target of 15 percent of the Party Vote. With only two percentage points to go at a distance of 34 days from the election, their campaign manager's expressed hopes of exceeding that target may not be misplaced.

The party with most reason to worry tonight is, of course, National. On 47.5 percent, it will be alarmed to be dropping support so far out from election day. Most of the public polls (including TVNZ's Colmar Brunton) over-estimate National's support by 4 to 6 percentage points, so National's strategists will wondering just how much further they are likely to drop before the only poll that matters rolls around.

Deepening the furrows on National's brow will be the fact that the TV3-Reid Research poll was conducted before the release of Nicky Hager's book, Dirty Politics, and that in the One News-Colmar Brunton poll the Internet-Mana Party has doubled its support to 4 percent.

With Labour proclaiming it's invitation to "Vote Positive" and the Greens' asking the electorate to "Love New Zealand" by giving them its Party Vote, National may discover that, rhetorically speaking, "Working for New Zealand" is not enough - especially if the voters mentally alter John Key's strapline to read "Working with Whale Oil".

The full details of the latest TV3-Reid Research Poll are here.

This posting is exclusive to the Bowalley Road blogsite.


alwyn said...

I presume you are also going to comment on the TV1 results Chris?
You can comment on how National are down there of course but it might be necessary to point out that Labour were down 2% to 26%.

Chris Trotter said...

True enough, Alwyn, but to balance that off Colmar-Brunton are giving Internet-Mana 4 percent - 2 points up from the previous survey.

So, it is still very much "Game On!"

paul scott said...

its 7% Chris we have 7% up our sleeve , We have NZF and NZCon and it is you soothsayer who told us it would be a NZ NAT Govt 2014 by a long shot

Chris Trotter said...

It would be a very brave (or foolhardy) person, Paul, who attempted to predict which way Winston Peters will jump in the days following 20 September.

Personally speaking, however, I do not believe the Left is going to need him. The combination of Kim Dotcom's intervention and Nicky Hager's book will, I believe, contribute the "extraordinary" factor which, just a few short weeks ago, looked like being the only thing that could prevent a runaway National victory.

As for Mr Craig, well, if you're pinning all your hopes on the Conservatives cresting the 5 percent threshold, then you may be in for a major disappointment.

Still, you never know. As we have all been reminded, a week can be a very long time in politics - and 4 weeks an eternity!

Ennui said...

Paul and Alwyn, if you check the only Poll that counts against the predicted results for the last three elections National was reported 3 months out on average (across the 3 major polling companies) 6% ahead of what they actually got.

On that level the chances of National getting above 43% look slim: the bit I am looking forward to is John Key having to slide up to Winston, "I didn't really mean it, truly Winston".

pat said...

"in all things it is better to hope than despair" Goethe

Guerilla Surgeon said...

Do I believe my ears? Have I just heard Matthew Hooton say that "Dirty Politics" will give Labour a win in the next election? I was a little gobsmacked to actually hear him on the program this morning, given that he is mentioned in the book quite a bit apparently. But I guess it is called from the left and the right :-). I notice on the parcel I heard that Hooton was very careful not to bag anyone, even though he was suggesting they should be fired. And at least Kathryn Ryan did use the word disgusting or despicable or something – words not often heard from the right about Cameron Slater and his gang. And they all seem to think it's got legs. Good.

Charles Etherington said...

Many a slip between cup and lip.
Who knows what scandal on the left is just around the corner?
What if the email thief turns out to be from Labour, the Greens or the Dotty-Commie Party?
Also this Hager muck raking campaign should ensure the Nats get out and vote.
So I can think of several other apposite truisms that will blow in over the next month.

Guerilla Surgeon said...

Just popped over to the whale oil blog – for only the third time in my life :-). It seems fairly heavily moderated for someone who is supposedly in favour of free speech. There are a lot of conspiracy theories going on over there at the moment. Particularly around Kim Dotcom. They all seem as barmy as a box full of badgers to be honest. Angling for counter strikes and the like :-). God this is fun!
Still waiting for an answer to my question on whether the right actually approve of the oily whale or not? Seems to me you can't condemn the one without the other – not without massive cognitive dissonance. Not that that's a problem with right wing people. Most of them seem to be able to hold any number of contradictory opinions in their tiny minds at the same time.

Tim Mallory said...

Some questions;

If Labour wins will they revoke the attacks on beneficiaries?

Will they reverse the tax cuts for the rich?

Will they reverse the increase in GST? (which penalises the poor).

Will they just be Natlite?

Chris Trotter said...

Well, Charles, I can only conclude that you haven't read Nicky Hager's book.

Actually, that's not quite true. I could conclude that you had read the book and found nothing to be shocked about.

But that would make you as bad as the people featured in the book.

So I'm paying you the compliment of assuming you're simply parroting the attack lines of the Right - which, I have to say, are looking increasingly thin.

Oh, and BTW, "muck-raking" has a long and honourable pedigree in the profession of journalism. The term may have been intended as an insult, but it was worn with pride by those who exposed the crimes of the wealthy.

Nicky would be flattered.

Charles Etherington said...

Not read the book and never will as not the slightest bit interested.
I have always regarded the party I vote for as the lesser of two evils so I expect they will just be a better bet for the next 3 years.
Surely you do not imagine the dirty tricks Hager is squealing about could not have been committed by any of the other players? And who stole those emails? It will come out I reckon.

Yes I think any Nats getting involved with Slater are twits and worse, but Mallard etc are into that crap too. Notice how quiet he is currently btw.
I expect more and perhaps even worse to come so don't be so cocky you left crowd. But I know nothing....

Guerilla Surgeon said...

Perhaps you can answer my question Charles. Do you approve of what Cameron Slater does? If so how is Hager different? Apart from the obvious political orientation :-). Personally I think the main difference between the two is ethics :-). That is Slater doesn't seem to know the meaning of the word. And he takes far too much pleasure in what he does. Something to chew on Charles. By the way, if anything juicy comes out about the Labour Party don't worry about me, I don't rate them very highly anyway :-).

Guerilla Surgeon said...

Another quick look at the oily whale. Posted a couple of comments – both moderated within minutes, although one did get an uptick before it disappeared. Very, very defensive :-). I thought one of the comments at least was relatively harmless, just a wee dig at the conspiracy theorists. The other I must admit expressed my schadenfreude. But even so I think both would have passed here :-). Afterwards of course I have to go and wash my hands. That place is disgusting – it should have a sign on it saying "gentlemen must adjust their dress before leaving." Still a loud silence from the right on the topic of the blog I notice – though John Key did call Slater a shock jock. That's putting it mildly :-).

Charles Etherington said...

No I don't approve of Slater & his nasty attacks at all, and I never have. I do not read his bog, sorry blog, even now.
From what is reported in the mainstream, he is foul and lacks compassion. So Collins shows she has very bad taste. However he will not be all bad and he probably for example is quite honest, or nice to cats. An honest swine. Unlike the criminal hacker. A dishonest swine, of the left presumably. Now we see he set up his secret Twit account just before Hager's book. So a conspiracy! What fun. Hager the theorist has got into one himself? Or others are using him?)

But back to the key point in all of this distraction, as Chris writes in The Press this morning, his type, his role, this sort of politics has always existed in politics. And he perceptively points out that if that is as far as it goes then it actually is a good thing (my words). The alternative is men with guns and people afraid to say anything or they may disappear in the night.
Four weeks to go!! An age.

Guerilla Surgeon said...

Nicky Hager might be a conspiracy theories, but he's shown up at least 2 conspiracies in the last few years :-). So it's like that saying, "just because you're paranoid doesn't mean to say they're not out to get you." Nice to see you and other right-wing people don't approve of Cameron Slater Charles. Pity you seem to be able to use him when you think it's necessary, and abandon him when he becomes embarrassing :-). But that's politics.