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The New Old Triumvirate: Jacinda Ardern, back in 2017, confers with her longest-standing political allies, Grant Robertson and Chris Hipkins.
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WHAT JUST HAPPENED? Over the course of the past 72 hours something changed. Exactly what isn’t clear, not yet, but something has. New Zealanders feel it in their bones, in their hearts, and they’re scared.
When it’s
impossible to know what has happened, the next best thing is to try and
establish what hasn’t happened.
Accordingly,
I would like the Director-General of Health’s, Ashley Bloomfield’s, reassurance
that the ridiculous – not to say dangerous – Covid-19 Alert, which more-or-less
ordered every person living in South and West Auckland to be tested for the
virus, was NOT a deliberate attempt to destabilise the New Zealand Government’s
management of the pandemic.
Because,
what civil servant in their right mind would send out such a message without
the formal, traceable, approval of those at the very summit of the civil
service hierarchy? More to the point, what sort of senior public servant could
fail to appreciate the sheer absurdity of the order and its potential for
inducing something close to panic amongst the population of South and West
Auckland?
Occam’s
Razor allows of only two reasonable explanations. 1) That the action was
deliberate and its consequences foreseen. 2) That the calibre of the staff
responsible for its release was so abysmal that the notice’s glaring
deficiencies passed unnoticed. Neither explanation offers us much comfort. The
first admits to sabotage. The second to utter incompetence. The question to be
decided, therefore, is whether we are looking at a conspiracy or a cock-up?
What motive
would the individuals responsible for that errant notice have for sabotaging the
Government’s orderly transition from Level 3 to Level 2.5?
The most
obvious answer lies in the all-too-evident trepidation among scientists, civil
servants, and members of the general public, that the move out of Level 3 might
be premature – dangerous even. Those holding this view have argued that the
“perimeter” of the South Auckland Cluster had yet to be conclusively
established. The alarming possibility therefore arises that the offending
notice may have been issued as a form of institutional protest against what a
faction within the All-of-Government Committee (AOGC) responsible for managing the pandemic
considered a reckless government decision? A decision driven not by the
science, but by political and commercial interests no longer willing to be guided
by expert opinion.
Please Dr
Bloomfield (wherever you are!) please tell me this is NOT what happened.
Because if I’m right, and the release of that notice wasn’t simply another
demonstration of massive institutional incompetence (to set alongside the many
others) then public trust and confidence in the Government’s handling of the
Covid-19 Pandemic, already visibly shaken, will crumble and collapse.
Moreover (as
if the above speculation isn’t wild enough) there’s the additional concern that
extreme events, like the publication of that Covid-19 Alert, seldom happen in
isolation.
And that is
why I would like the reassurance of the Prime Minister that she has NOT – at
the insistence of the Finance Minister and the Health Minister – abandoned her
hitherto rock-solid determination to put the welfare of the New Zealand people
ahead of the profits of New Zealand businesses. Please, someone – anyone – tell
me, tell the nation, that this is NOT what happened.
While
they’re at it, they could also tell us why it was that Chris Hipkins,
interviewed on Magic Talk Radio just a couple of hours ahead of Jacinda’s
appearance in the Beehive Theatrette at 1:00pm on Sunday, 30 August, insisted
that the government would be “ploughing-on” with the transition from Level 3 to
Level 2.5?
The Health
Minister confirmed at today’s (31/8/20) 1:00pm Covid Update that he was well
aware of the situation relating to the “mistaken” Covid-19 Alert at the time of
that Magic Talk interview. So, the question arises: Did Hipkins make the
statement about “ploughing-on” to signal to our supposed AOGC rebels that their
protest had been in vain?
More to the
point, was it also a very public warning to Jacinda that there could be no
stepping back from the plan already agreed upon with her longest-standing and
closest political allies – Grant Robertson and Chris Hipkins? Any deviation
from the scheduled 11:59pm level-change could hardly fail to be interpreted by
the news media as evidence of a serious split in the uppermost reaches of the
Coalition Government. Not something a prime minister heading into a general
election would be eager to acknowledge!
The problem
with this sort of speculation is where to call a halt. Viewed through my
admittedly dramatic political prism, Jacinda’s decision to keep her former health
minister, David Clark, in Dunedin – and his job – for a great deal longer than
he had any right to expect begins to look like a shrewd method of ensuring the
state’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic would be decided by the Prime
Minister and her Director-General of Health. (Where is Ashley, BTW, he wasn’t
at today’s update?)
Did the
Director-General’s failure to properly implement the Cabinet’s directives
relating to border security so weaken his position that Robertson and Hipkins
were able to elbow him aside and transform the wildly popular, science-driven,
duumvirate of Jacinda and Ashley into a new, much more business-friendly,
triumvirate of Grant, Jacinda and Chris?
And if that
is what happened, then what does it say about the government’s new direction of
travel? Jacinda’s and Ashley’s decision to “go hard and go early” represented a
revolutionary reversal of the usual neoliberal priorities. In effect, they
opted to put people first and profits second. The immense and very obvious
outpouring of public gratitude and affection that followed the extraordinary
success of this strategy made Jacinda effectively invulnerable to attack. Until
the saintly duumvirate could, somehow, be destabilised, the furious business
community (ably assisted by their right-wing allies in the news media) could
only whinge and moan. But then Ashley stumbled, and the business community
seized its chance.
This
morning, on RNZ’s Nine-to-Noon political panel, Labour’s pollster, Stephen
Mills, wondered aloud why Jacinda – backed in the polls but upwards of 80
percent of her fellow New Zealanders, had apparently chosen to abandon her
hugely successful go-hard, go-early “elimination” strategy, in favour of a new
strategy of Covid-19 “containment”.
Please,
someone – anyone – confirm for me, and the rest of the 80 percent, that the
explanations offered in this post are nothing more than the fever-dreams of an
ageing left-wing commentator. Please tell us that the sequences of events
outlined above bear absolutely no relation to reality. That there has not been
a coup against Jacinda’s “people first” Covid elimination strategy. That the 20
percent haven’t prevailed. Please, please, please, reassure Jacinda’s loyal
team of four million that this is NOT what just happened!
This essay was originally posted on The Daily Blog of Tuesday, 1 September 2020.