Tuesday 13 December 2016

Nikki Kaye Returns To Save The Day.

A Very Welcome Return To Health: The dismay with which the news of Nikki Kaye’s cancer diagnosis was received by John Key and his senior colleagues is easily imagined. Had her affliction forced Ms Kaye to resign from parliament, the Auckland Central seat would have been up for grabs. Upon the outcome of the ensuing by-election would ride nothing less than the National-led Government’s ability to govern New Zealand in anything resembling a predictable and confident fashion. In other words, a defeat in Auckland Central would have precipitated an early general election.
 
A PARTICULARLY PLEASING sight for some very sore National Party eyes. That was the Auckland Central MP, Nikki Kaye, when she bounded into Parliament last week in remarkably fine fettle. Granted leave from Parliament to deal with a worrying diagnosis of breast cancer, Ms Kaye’s future has for many weeks been uncertain. It has also been the subject of some grim-faced discussions among National’s leading strategists – including the then prime minister, John Key. Her dramatic return to health – and politics – must be a huge relief, not only to family and friends, but also to her party.
 
National’s strategists’ concern over the fate of Auckland Central was entirely justifiable. All of them know how to count, and, of late, the parliamentary arithmetic has become decidedly tricky.
 
The loss of Northland to Winston Peters in March of last year left the Government in a pretty parliamentary pickle. With 60 seats of their own, plus the rock-solid support of the Epsom MP, Act Leader David Seymour, the Government had commanded a one seat majority in the 121 member House of Representatives. After losing Northland, however, National found itself in firm control of just 60 seats. Overnight, Mr Key’s less slavish support partners, the Ohariu MP, United Party Leader Peter Dunne, and the two Maori Party MPs, Te Ururoa Flavell and Marama Fox, found themselves with enhanced political leverage vis-à-vis the Government. The most embarrassing example of this new-found influence is the Maori Party’s emendation of National’s proposed reform of the Resource Management Act.
 
Clearly, the loss of another National Party-held seat would leave the Government in an even more precarious parliamentary position. Even with pledges of unwavering support from David Seymour and Peter Dunne, the construction of the Government’s election-year budget, and the success of its legislative programme, would be entirely dependent on the good will and support of the Maori Party.
 
The dismay with which the news of Ms Kaye’s cancer diagnosis was received by Mr Key and his senior colleagues is easily imagined. Had her affliction forced Ms Kaye to resign from parliament, the Auckland Central seat would have been up for grabs. Upon the outcome of the ensuing by-election would ride nothing less than the National-led Government’s ability to govern New Zealand in anything resembling a predictable and confident fashion. In other words, a defeat in Auckland Central would have precipitated an early general election.
 
Unfortunately for National, its chances of holding Auckland Central in a by-election are very slim. The Opposition parties, understanding that National’s failure to hold the seat would bring forward the election, would likely agree to give Labour’s Jacinda Ardern a clear run – just as they did for Michael Wood in the recent Mt Roskill by-election. Such a clearing-of-the-decks for Labour would add an additional 2,000 votes, at least, to Ms Ardern’s 2014 tally of 11,894 votes – more than enough to overwhelm Ms Kaye’s 2014 electorate majority of 600 votes.
 
Significantly, National’s Mt Roskill campaign turned out to be extremely disheartening. At the start of the operation the party’s strategists had dreamed of making good the loss of Northland by stealing Mt Roskill from Labour. Rumours circulated that National had come into possession of a new, devilishly sophisticated get-out-the-vote software package. If it could turn out National’s 2014 Party Vote, then the seat would be theirs. It was not to be. Not only did the technology fail, but so, too, did John Key’s campaigning magic. The portents for Auckland Central were anything but auspicious.
 
MMP’s rules also disadvantaged National. If a by-election is won by a candidate currently occupying a List seat, as happened with Winston Peters, then not only does the successful candidate secure the electorate seat, but the next person on the Party’s List also enters Parliament. NZ First emerged from the 2014 General Election with 11 MPs. After the Northland By-Election it had 12. If Jacinda Ardern, a List MP, won Auckland Central in a by-election, then Labour’s numbers in the House would be boosted from 32 to 33 by the arrival (probably) of Raymond Huo off its List.
 
The fate of Auckland Central has certainly presented the leaders of the seven parliamentary parties with a complex and volatile political calculation. For weeks now they have been scratching their heads and sharpening their pencils. Complicating the political maths still further is David Shearer’s imminent return to the United Nations. Voters living in the safe Labour seat of Mt Albert face a by-election as early as February.
 
Buoyed by the win in Mt Roskill, and heartened by the prospect of two more in Mt Albert and Auckland Central, Andrew Little’s “bring it on”  challenge to the new National leader made good strategic sense.
 
Which is why Nikki Kaye’s recovery must be the best news Bill English has received since John Key told him he was quitting.
 
This essay was originally published in The Press of Tuesday, 13 December 2016.

8 comments:

Polly said...

I understand that Jacinda Ardern is thinking of jumping ship from Auckland Central to Mt Albert. Should that occur then Nikkie Kay could still hold on to Auckland Central.
Labour should be and I believe are rejuvenated by John Keys shock resignation, but I would urge caution to them, if people leave National because of JK's resignation Labour and the Greens cannot expect those people to vote for them simply because they exist.
Though early days Bill English and National seem to have absorbed the loss and are smoothly assuming a stability factor leadership for the electorate.
Andrew little must be desperate for a safe Labour seat and unless Annette King departs Rongotai shortly he may have to look seriously at claiming Mt Albert for a by-election attempt, which given Labours (Shearers) massive margins he cannot lose.
It seems that NZ is going to have a dynamic election on its hands in 2017.

It could be called early!.

kiwizeppelin said...

Best of luck to Nikki Kaye in her recovery. Lets just hope that she takes her new found passion for health scares and cancer treatment into the Cabinet room with her and she becomes an advocate for better health policies in the future.

Nick J said...

Well said kiwizep. I have no time for her politics or party but we should all wish her a speedy and permanent recovery.

Paulus said...

I thought I had just heard Jacinda confirm that she will jump to Mt Albert from Auckland Central.
She has recently bought a house in the Mt Albert electorate.

greywarbler said...

Looking at the image, Nikky is followed by a woman with dyed red hair. Has the Cancer Society got anything to say about hair dyes which are so commonly used these days?

I read at one time that hair dyes had managed to stay outside cosmetic classification and had very little overview as to their ingredients which are applied to a large area of skin and hair. They contain carcinogens but are or were lightly regulated. If women are getting cancer at a young age, is it hair dye that starts it off? Also I think that the chemicals go quickly into the bladder.

Pinger said...

I see that Ardern is looking to slip into the Mt Albert seat being a two-time loser in Auckland Central.

If I was Little I'd tell her to get off her arse and campaign and win Auckland Central; nobody gets gifted a seat.

It's the lazy & defeatist mindset like that of Ardern that kills Labour.

aberfoyle said...

Health care,who dares say such,like demanded unionism,fear,say.

wadiwatcher said...

Could not agree more !