"A man's reach should exceed his grasp, or what's a heaven for?" Canadian Press photographer Andrew Vaughan's 2013 photograph captures that magical political moment when anyone with a beating heart knows – just knows – that this is the one to watch?
IT’S ONE OF THOSE PICTURES that freeze-frames a political
leader in the making. Half-turned from the enthusiastic crowd of Prince Edward
Islanders he is addressing, Justin Trudeau’s upraised arm acknowledges
something beyond the image’s point of reference. A pale sunlight lightly gilds
the palm of his outstretched hand and highlights the features of his face.
Taken in 2013, Canadian Press
photographer Andrew Vaughan’s photograph captures to perfection the same
political magic that swept the 43-year-old Trudeau to victory in last Monday’s
Canadian general election.
Inevitably, those New Zealanders favouring a change of
government in 2017 are scouring the ranks of opposition parties for a Kiwi
politician capable of bringing some Trudeau magic to our own political arena.
Labour supporters, in particular, are looking at the rather
dour figure of Andrew Little and wondering whether he has what it takes to
unseat a Prime Minister as popular as John Key.
New Zealand leftists who have studied the Canadian campaign
are worried that Labour has already committed itself to the sort of moderate
and fiscally unadventurous course that saw Canada’s left-wing New Democrat
Party (NDP) relegated to third place behind Trudeau’s Liberals and Stephen
Harper’s Conservatives.
So concerned was the dour and rather tetchy NDP leader, Tom
Mulcair, to fend-off criticism that his party wasn’t ready to manage the
Canadian economy, that he promised voters to keep the federal Budget in
permanent surplus. Given that this was also Stephen Harper’s policy, Mulcair’s
decision allowed Trudeau to outflank the NDP on the left. Little’s critics look
at his inept handling of the Trans-Pacific Partnership issue and wonder whether
something similar hasn’t already happened here.
The Greens male co-leader, James Shaw, certainly shares much
with Trudeau in terms of projecting youthful energy and good looks. Less
certain, however, is his willingness to adopt the Liberal leader’s strategy of
inviting voters from across the political spectrum to join his nationwide
crusade for “real change”. And, even if he was up to persuading his colleagues
to leave the the safety of their eco-socialist strongholds, and embrace the
political centre, would he be able to persuade the electorate that the Greens,
in office, would remain politically
centred? It is the curse of the Greens to be perceived as enthusiastic
promoters of a rather narrow ideological agenda. Historically, the Canadian
Liberal Party has attracted solid voter support across the whole electorate.
It’s a trick New Zealand’s Greens have yet to master.
NZ First, by contrast, has never ceased presenting itself as
a party with the broadest possible voter appeal. Indeed, in its early days,
back in the early 1990s, its support rivalled that of the National Party’s.
Unashamedly populist in his political instincts, NZ First’s long-time leader,
Winston Peters, would dearly love to replicate Trudeau’s utter trouncing of
John Key’s good “mate”, Stephen Harper. Unfortunately, youthfulness is not a
quality many people associate with NZ First. A sunny disposition is, however,
well within Peters’ political repertoire. One flash of his 1,000 watt smile
generally absolves him of most political sins. Which is why, presumably, NZ
First’s highly successful by-election campaign in Northland was so jaunty and
up-beat. If Peters is able to demonstrate such sunny ways on a national scale
in 2017, who knows what might happen.
In the end, however, most of the speculation about whether a
Justin Trudeau is lurking, unrecognised, in the Opposition’s ranks circles back
to the Labour Party. If Little is too dour and grumpy to beat the man Bill
English once described as “bouncing from cloud to cloud”, who is left to bounce
Labour’s banner up there alongside him?
Grant Robertson would probably say Grant Robertson. (And, to
be fair, there are many in the Labour Party who would agree!) But, to the rest
of New Zealand, Robertson can come across as just a bit too complacent; a bit
too absolutely, arrogantly, Wellington. For the best part of a year, he’s had
plenty of chances to shine as Labour’s finance spokesperson. That his light has
barely flickered in that role must count heavily against him.
Which leaves just two names for Trudeau-seekers to play
with: Stuart Nash and Jacinda Ardern. Both are well endowed with the skin-deep
trappings of the Trudeauesque politican: youth and good looks. Nash even boasts
a famous Labour name – although, the number of people who know that New Zealand
once had a Prime Minister called Walter Nash cannot be very large. Ardern,
herself, is already registering in the preferred Prime Minister stakes – always
a sign of better things to come. The positives are definitely there for both
MPs.
But can either of them boast a photograph like Andrew
Vaughan’s? Has a photographer ever frozen Nash or Ardern in that magical
political moment when anyone with a beating heart knows – just knows – that this is the one to watch?
This essay was
originally published in The Press of Tuesday,
27 October 2015.
