The Great Includer: David Cunliffe's speech to the Young Labour Conference argued that politics-as-usual has failed. A prosperous future, he warned them, cannot now be built the same way as the past. It’s no longer enough “to work for our people”, said Cunliffe, “we have to work with them.”
DAVID
CUNLIFFE’S SPEECH to the Young Labour Conference on Saturday ended what’s been
a hellish week for the Opposition on a surprisingly defiant note.
“I
believe that our people are a community, not a commodity. I believe that when the
least fortunate of us does better, we all do better. I believe that in this
great country no-one should be left out or left behind.”
Cunliffe
is a disconcertingly happy warrior. An exile on the back benches, with the
insults of his enemies still ringing in his ears, the man’s confidence that he
would come back and win the leadership of his party was indomitable. Even now,
in the wake of Shane Jones’s deeply damaging defection, and amidst rumours that
Labour is polling in the low 20s, Cunliffe’s confidence remains undiminished.
A
large part of that confidence is based on what might be called the
“technological” aspects of contemporary political campaigning. Labour appears
to have got its hands on something similar to the computer software that proved
so crucial to both the Obama presidential campaigns. The team around Cunliffe
is adamant that with this new technology they will be able to identify
precisely the groups most likely to vote for Labour.
This
technological fix will not, however, be enough, on its own, to secure a Labour
victory. A major reason for Cunliffe’s presence at the Young Labour Conference
(the largest since the late-1980s) was to reinforce the importance of the role
they will play in “getting out the vote”.
The
Obama Campaign’s success was not only about putting in the technological fix,
but also about how efficiently the mountains of data it was crunching could be
conveyed and practically applied on voter doorsteps by the tens-of-thousands of
volunteers that made up its hugely effective “on-the-ground” organisation.
“Change
is not a spectator sport”, Cunliffe told his youthful audience. “Our opponents
are counting on young people like you, your classmates, friends and flatmates
to stay home in September. They are betting on the apathy of young people like
you. They are counting on your silence. We need to prove them wrong.”
Aware
of their imminent dispatch onto the streets of Wellington and the Hutt Valley
for an afternoon of door-knocking and political proselytising, the Labour leader
told his young listeners: “The conversations you will have today are part of
hundreds and thousands of personal contacts we are having all around the
country.”
Data-mining
plus feet on the ground.
“That
is how we are going to win this election”, Cunliffe assured them. By building
“a grassroots movement for change”.
Cunliffe’s
confidence – symbolised by his permanently fixed cat-who’s-got-the-cream grin –
strongly suggests that he’s been convinced that, on election day, this
combination of improved technology and inspired grassroots organisation, which
Labour intends to operate below the news media’s radar, will leave all the
doom-saying pundits struggling – like the hapless Karl Rove on Fox News in 2012
– to explain why the impossible keeps happening right before their eyes.
But
is the Opposition Leader’s confidence justified? If the rumours concerning poll
results in the 20-25 percent range are borne out, how will Labour’s campaign
maintain the high level of morale and personal commitment necessary to keep an
effective get-out-the-vote operation in play?
At
an even more basic level, how do Cunliffe and his advisers ensure that the
demographic groups deemed “most likely” to vote Labour actually place two ticks
on the ballot papers?
Recent
research undertaken in the United States strongly suggests that electoral
success comes to the party whose policies adhere most closely to the
preferences of its political base. The progressive American writer, Dave
Johnson, argues provocatively that “there is no swing block of voters between
the parties”. “The lesson to learn”, he says, is that: “There are not voters
who ‘swing’, there are left voters and right voters who either show up and vote
or do not show up and vote. If Democrats don’t give regular, working people –
the Democratic base – a reason to vote, then many of them won’t.”
What
Cunliffe must decide, and quickly, is whether offsetting the introduction of a
Capital Gains Tax; raising the age of eligibility for NZ Superannuation to 67;
supporting the free-trade principles of the TPPA; and tinkering with the
Reserve Bank Act against his party’s “Kiwibuild” housing scheme; the proposed
single-buyer of electricity, New Zealand Power; and the “Best Start” support
payment policy for infants; will be enough to give Labour’s base “a reason to
vote”.
“I
believe that politics-as-usual has failed New Zealanders”, Cunliffe told Young
Labour. A prosperous future, he warned them, cannot now be built the same
way as the past. It’s no longer enough “to work for our
people”, said Cunliffe, “we have to work with them.”
Properly
developed, that concept could give much more than Labour’s base a reason to
vote.
This essay was
originally published in The Press of Tuesday,
29 April 2014.