Just A Little War: Bulgarian troops assault successfully the Ottoman lines at Kirklareli (European Turkey) during the First Balkan War 1912-1913. The manoeuvring of the Russian and Austro-Hungarian Empires in response to the changing balance of power in South Eastern Europe brought Europe to the brink of war. A century later, the manoeuvring of New Zealand business leaders against a shift in the Left's economic thinking similarly risks the outbreak of a much wider conflict.
ONE HUNDRED YEARS AGO, in the Balkans, there was a war. Just
a little war, involving four little countries, and one large, rather elderly
and far from healthy Empire. Surprisingly, Bulgaria, Serbia, Montenegro and
Greece won the war, and the Ottoman Empire, referred to by the Great Powers as
“the sick old man of Europe” got sicker.
Two of those great powers, the Russian and Austro-Hungarian
Empires, both had a vital strategic interest in who controlled the Balkans. So vital,
that while the Balkan War was raging, the Russian government thought it
advisable to mass its troops on the Austrian border.
Now, massing troops on anybody’s borders is always a pretty
provocative thing to do – and the Austrians, not unreasonably, began preparing
for the full-scale mobilisation of their army. Unfortunately, when countries
begin mobilising armies, all bets should be regarded as off.
In 1913, however, there was still sufficient common-sense at
the highest political levels of the Russian Empire to prevent any further escalation
from taking place. Soldiers on both sides of the border were ordered back to
their barracks. Orders calling up reservists were never issued. As a
consequence, the outbreak of a general European war was delayed for another
year.
But, in August 1914, the Russian stock of common sense ran
out. And, just nine months after the Russian Tsar’s decision to mobilise his
army had ignited World War I, thousands of New Zealand and Australian boys were
fighting and dying for the Dardanelles – gateway to the Ottoman Empire.
It’s funny, isn’t it, how things work out?
LESS THAN A MONTH AGO, the Labour Party and the Greens
jointly announced their decision to reform the New Zealand energy market. Using
the drug-buying monopsony, Pharmac, as their model, the two opposition parties came
up with NZ Power – a single, state-run buyer of all New Zealand’s electrical
power. Energy generators would be paid a “fair price” for their product, based
on the historic, rather than the marginal, cost of its production. The
resulting savings, around $300 per household per year, would be passed onto
consumers.
Well, the Labour-Green Opposition policy on energy has
galvanised the New Zealand business community in much the same way as the
Balkan League’s attack on the Ottoman Empire galvanised South-Eastern Europe
back in 1913.
Senior business leaders, rightly characterising the
Labour-Green policy as a decisive shift away from the neoliberal, “free-market”
consensus which has underpinned the platforms of both the Labour and National
parties since the mid-1980s, last week served notice that they would regard its
implementation as a direct threat to their vital strategic interests.
In an open letter to Labour Leader, David Shearer, and the
Greens’ Co-Leader, Russel Norman, and signed on behalf of some of New Zealand’s
largest and most influential business organisations, including Business New
Zealand, the NZ Chambers of Commerce, the Employers and Manufacturers
Association, the Road Transport Forum and the Major Electricity Users Group, 10
chief executives called upon Labour and the Greens to: “withdraw these damaging
policies”.
Massing His Troops: Business New Zealand's Phil O'Reilly reiterates the business community's opposition to the energy policies of Labour and the Greens on TVNZ's Q+A programme of 5 May 2013.
In military terms, this extraordinary démarche from the business community is the equivalent of their massing
troops along the border.
What the
nation’s business leaders have delivered to Labour and the Greens is a threat.
The fact that it is, for the moment, an unspoken threat does not in any way
diminish its potency. They may begin their letter by saying: “We respect your
right to announce new policy at any time.” But, its political content strongly
suggests that the opposite is true.
Labour and
the Greens are being told that unless they withdraw their policy the
considerable resources of the New Zealand business community will be devoted to
making sure that they are unsuccessful at the next election. And even if they
do manage to win in 2014, they should expect neither the assistance nor the
co-operation of New Zealand’s business leadership in managing the policy’s
implementation.
Labour and
the Greens thus find themselves in the same position as the Austro-Hungarian
Empire in 1913. Russian troops are massing on the borders. Orders calling up
reservists are being drafted. Doing nothing means abandoning all strategic
interest in the Balkans. But mobilising its own forces could start a war.
Somebody
has to blink.
In 2013,
it must not be Labour and the Greens who blink. Because, if they capitulate to this
crude political intimidation, and withdraw their policy, then the rest of us
might just as well hang a “CLOSED” sign on the doors of New Zealand democracy.
Hopefully,
as happened in 1913, cooler and wiser heads will prevail. To preserve the
democratic peace, New Zealand’s business leaders need to back down and back
off.
If they
refuse, then Labour and the Greens, for democracy’s sake, need to warn them
that, when the Left next comes to power, all bets are off.
This essay was originally published in The Press of Tuesday, 7 May 2013.
