Showing posts with label Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Show all posts

Tuesday, 8 October 2013

Targeting The Policy Agreement

Policy Target: The Reserve Bank Act (1989)  It was one of the Neoliberal Counter-Revolution's primary objectives: to keep the interfering hands of politicians as far away from the controlling mechanisms of monetary policy as possible. Otherwise known as strangling the economy in order to save it.
 
SOME ARE CALLING IT irresponsible meddling, others talk about the need to regain control of our destiny. Whatever it’s called, it’s attracting a lot of attention. And not a little concern.
 
For nearly thirty years both of New Zealand’s largest political parties have faithfully adhered to the doctrine that a country’s monetary policy is best determined by an independent central bank. Furthermore, that the prime focus of monetary policy must be keeping inflationary pressures under the strictest control. In practice, that’s meant keeping the interfering hands of politicians as far away from the steering-wheel as possible.
 
New Zealand embraced this monetarist view the central bank’s role with special fervour. Our current Reserve Bank Act, passed by the Fourth Labour Government in 1989, places enormous economic power in the hands of a single person, the Reserve Bank Governor. He alone is responsible for carrying out the Act’s primary function: ensuring “stability in the general level of prices”.
 
The only democratic check upon the Governor’s power comes in the form of the Policy Target Agreement (PTA) negotiated periodically with the Minister of Finance. It isn’t much of a check though, because the only real debate is over the permissible range of inflationary fluctuations. If the inflation rate goes above, or stays below, the agreed levels for too long, the Governor intervenes.
 
The mechanism he uses to do this is the Official Cash Rate (OCR). By raising or lowering the price at which the privately-owned banks can access liquid funds on a short-term basis the Reserve Bank is able to expand or contract short-term demand in the New Zealand economy and hence (at least theoretically) keep prices under control.
 
The use of this single, blunt economic instrument has fuelled repeated property booms, blown out New Zealand’s balance-of-payments, and undermined our manufacturing exporters.
 
So, why did our politicians give so much economic power to one, unelected government official? Why is something so critical to the health of our economy as setting core interest rates not the responsibility – as it once was – of the people’s elected representatives?
 
Answering that question takes us to the heart of the “Quiet Revolution” in economic management, in which the Reserve Bank Act (1989) played so important a part. Essentially, the decision to remove the management of monetary policy from the politicians’ hands was inspired by the growing fear among political and economic elites that the democratisation of economic policy formation had gotten out of hand.
 
The deadly confluence of the economic, political and social crises that characterised the 1930s, and which led to the human disaster of World War II, had largely discredited the laissez-faire economic doctrines which spawned them. Rather than go on entrusting the elites with the conduct of economic policy, the citizens of the victorious democratic powers made sure that those responsible for the big economic decisions were politicians accountable to themselves.
 
The result was a 30-year period of unprecedented economic expansion, during which, in the USA, the share of national income going to the top 1 percent of income earners plummeted to less than 10 percent (from a pre-war high of close to 20 percent). Between 1945 and 1975, thanks to successive post-war governments’ commitment to policies aimed at full-employment and wealth redistribution, and to preserving the bargaining strength of trade unions, the standard of living of ordinary working people rose steadily.
 
With their economic and political power fast eroding, the Western elites seized upon the inflationary pressures unleashed by the Vietnam War and the Arab Oil Embargo to discredit the democratic conduct of economic affairs.
 
Politicians, they argued, were unfit to determine economic policy precisely because they were prey to electoral pressures. Only when populist politicians, like New Zealand’s Sir Robert Muldoon, were legally precluded from interfering with the free play of “market forces” could the scourge of double-digit inflation be defeated. And that free play could only occur after the “market distorting” influence of high taxes and excessive government borrowing, inefficient state-owned enterprises, and the power of the “over-mighty” trade unions had been dismantled – comprehensively.
 
The imposition of what came to be called “neoliberalism” thus represented not a “revolution” in economic management but a “counter-revolution”. And absolutely crucial to its success has been the 30-year bipartisan consensus that no other economic doctrine is to be given a serious hearing anywhere. Not in the news media; not in the schools and universities; and certainly not in the two main political parties: National and Labour.
 
Hardly surprising, then, that serious disquiet is growing among those whose job it is to defend the neoliberal counter-revolution at all costs. Not only is the Reserve Bank under attack from the Greens (whose modest levels of electoral support make them more irritant than threat) but also, and most alarmingly, from Labour.
 
And once Labour’s re-democratised monetary policy – what’s next?
 
This essay was originally published in The Press of Tuesday, 8 October 2013.

Friday, 22 March 2013

Learning From Cyprus

A Prophetic Voice: It is difficult to imagine a more profound breach of trust between the State and its citizens than for it to reach into their bank accounts and steal their savings. The political and financial crisis gripping Cyprus, precipitated by the IMF and the European Central Bank, will have a profound effect on ordinary peoples' political expectations all around the world.

THE CYPRIOT MATRIARCH who hid her life savings under the mattress doesn’t look quite so silly now – does she?
 
It’s difficult to conceive of a bigger betrayal of trust than the one unfolding before our eyes on the Mediterranean island of Cyprus.
 
We are told as children that the safest place for our money is in the bank. More than that, the building up of personal savings is encouraged by politicians and bankers as the mature and responsible course that all good citizens should follow.
 
Imagine the consternation, then, when the Cypriot Government announced that it was about to reach into the savings accounts of its citizens and commandeer a portion of them to meet the demands of the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank.
 
Failure to oblige these all-powerful financial institutions will see the multi-billion-Euro loan Cyprus so desperately needs to stave off bankruptcy withheld.
 
Upon hearing this incredible news, Cypriots immediately rushed to the nearest ATM to empty their accounts – only to discover that the banks had shut the machines down.
 
The Cypriot Government then poured even more fuel onto its citizens already blazing fury by announcing a “bank holiday” until the Cypriot Parliament – called into emergency session – was ready to pass legislation legitimising the IMF/ECB-sponsored bank heist.
 
Astoundingly, the European Union Summit, held in Brussels just days before the crisis broke, was so sanguine about the outcome of the Cyprus bail-out negotiations that it hadn’t even included them on the main agenda. According to a Bloomberg report, they would be dealt with “at a separate meeting of euro-area Finance Ministers.”
 
As news of the Cyprus bank raid spread across other debt-stricken European nations, and stock markets around the world registered the shock, the arrogant unwisdom of assuming innocent citizens would supinely acquiesce in their government’s garnishing of their life savings quickly became evident.
 
Apparently not one of the European leaders gathered at Brussels had thought to review the last occasion that ATMs were switched off and a government informed the world that it was messing with its citizens own money.
 
Argentina in 2001 experienced a similar debt and banking crisis. The outcome was the largest default ($US132 billion) on a sovereign debt in modern history – the very nightmare that European Union leaders most fear.
 
Not that Cyprus is large enough, in either political or economic terms, to bring the EU to its knees all by itself. But what those Finance Ministers apparently did not consider was the demonstration effect of the IMF/ECB-sanctioned Cypriot raid on the citizens of those EU nations also facing debt and banking difficulties.
 
A Spaniard, or an Italian, or a Portuguese, with his or her life savings deposited one of their country’s leading banks will now be asking themselves: “What if the situation turns critical here? What if the IMF and the ECB demand something similar from our own government? Doesn’t it make more sense for me to put my money somewhere else? Somewhere safe? Somewhere my government can’t get its hands on it?
 
The Cypriot bail-out “deal” was as ill-considered as it was high-handed. God knows what the “end-game” is.
 
And, just before you mentally congratulate yourself on being born a New Zealander, take a look at what Finance Minister, Bill English, and the Reserve Bank Governor, Graeme Wheeler, are cooking-up.
 
It’s something called Open Bank Resolution (OPR) and the National-led Government reckons it’s the best solution on offer to a major bank failure.
 
Under OPR, if a bank fails, all its depositors will have their savings reduced to fund the institution’s financial recovery. In other words, if the men and women who run the major New Zealand banks decide to follow the example set by American and European financial institutions, and sail themselves into waters they can’t sail out of, you and I will be on the hook to bail them out.
 
And, according to Bill English, we’ll have nobody to blame but ourselves. Apparently, it’s up to us to scrutinise the performance of the banks in which we have money deposited – and act accordingly. Never mind that, as the Greens’ Russel Norman objected in his press release: “Not even sophisticated investors like Merrill Lynch saw the global financial crisis coming.”
 
That’s true. But the world has seen what’s coming to the people of Cyprus.
 
We have been warned.
 
This essay was originally published in The Waikato Times, The Taranaki Daily News, The Timaru Herald, The Otago Daily Times and The Greymouth Star of Friday, 22 March 2013.